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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fb who wrote (26012)	3/12/1999 8:32:00 AM
From: Shumway	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Salomon Smith Barney upgraded Novellus Systems (NOVL) to "Buy" from "Outperform."

To: fb who wrote (26012)	3/12/1999 11:14:00 AM
From: Brian Malloy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

As far as NOVL is concerned it is irrelevant. NOVL will configure its software to run on any OS. Linux, NT, SUN-OS, HP-Unix or whatever else may come along. I will say that the guys whole argument rests on the following statement "Finally, there is the mathematically correct way of extrapolating an exponential: If Linux has been doubling every six months for a decade, the most probable extrapolation is that it will continue to double every six months. That will put it at about 10% of the desktop by Jan 2000, about 40% of the desktop by Jan 2001, and at market saturation by Jan 2002. " This person is obviously not a mathematician. At a minimum he needs to input competitors. A biological predetor prey or a difference equation format among others would be much more appropriate and defensible. He makes one big make mistake. Assuming that not only will Linux win but that no other firm will take any action, basically everyone else just walks away from the market. Regards

To: fb who wrote (26012)	3/12/1999 1:44:00 PM
From: PJ Strifas	Respond to of 42771

Hello! Thanks for that article, it was a great rant. Reading it over a few times makes me think that NOVL at least understands open standards. Moving to pure IP, opening NDS and making their products work everywhere will go a long way in making and keeping NOVL healthy. While I'm no mathematician, I can not state with statistical evidence any certain outcome of the coming decade in regards to the computer industry. I do feel that the movement to open source code and open standards is just the beginning. Just like the telephone and TV before, there will be a standard for an open OS. It's just makes sense. One OS for desktops -- clean, simple, reliable not bells & whisltes included. You can download them if you want later. I wish I had more space to explain what could be done but I won't take up this space for that :) Getting back to NOVL and this topic... I think NOVL is forward thinking enough to see MSFT's future and knows well enough where they want to be. The evidence of that sits in their decisions to support open source code, multiple platforms and open standards (such as DEN, IP, CORBA/DCOM et al). Peter Strifas

To: fb who wrote (26012)	3/14/1999 1:23:00 PM
From: Scott C. Lemon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Hello fb, > muq.org > > Would someone please explain how the above information impacts > NOVL?? This is actually an interesting document, but I have to say that in my opinion it's slightly "Linux fanatical" ... I'm not going to argue the "facts" but more the vision of this document. I believe that some of the points brought out are accurate, and that Windows will continue to have a hard time moving forward. The reason that I think this will occur is what we call "freedom!" As a corporation, or major user of computers, I would be terrified of standardization on any platform that did not give me "freedom to choose." What I mean by this, is what kind of an "out" does the vendor leave you? To me, the more ways that a vendor provides you a way "out" of their technology, the more that I know that vendor must provide for me. (Imagine if a bank was created that let you deposit money, but didn't let you easily withdraw it all and close the account!) The more a vendor "locks me in" the less likely I'll be able to migrate to a superior technology easily. And if the vendor chooses to, they can ship me shoddy technology and they know there is nothing I can do about it but wait for the fixes ... migration would be just too costly! Windows has become this "lock me in" OS. All of the people who followed and believed the FUD that Microsoft would deliver (ActiveDirectory, Win2000, Office2000, Exchange 6?) are now locked in a holding pattern ... they have committed their future to a company that didn't deliver - yet. And so the competitors of these same people, who held a more diverse computing platform, are able to move ahead. So Linux enters the picture and is a very "open" operating system. And if I standardize on it I have the ability to modify the operating system to be whatever I want. This is a very powerful concept. Except ... I think that OS development and modification is not for the faint of heart. This is why the age of Virtual Machines arrived several years ago ... Sun's Java, Lucent's Inferno, and even languages like PERL, Python, and more. The power of a Virtual Machine is that it is able to run on a wide range of platforms, from silicon to operating systems. So if I invest in Java and Java applications, I know that I can run them on Windows ... but if Windows no longer delivers I can move my applications to any other platform that supports Java. I have not handcuffed myself to a single vendor OS. I've given myself the "freedom to choose" the platform that I run my applications on. It's not to say that I won't run Java on Windows, but Microsoft would be a whole lot more responsive to customers if their customers could all leave and walk away to an alternative platform! This is why Microsoft works so hard on it's "Embrace, Extend ..." work. If you write to any of their proprietary APIs your application is locked in to WIndows. MFC, MAPI, ODBC, ActiveX, ASP, etc. Yes, it's easy, but doesn't that make you wonder? Something for nothing? ;-) I believe that the people making decisions should not be thinking "Linux" but rather "controllable platform". What platform provides the customer with the most control of their future. Linux provides this, but so do the various "higher-level" platforms like Java, Jini, Inferno, etc. These are very platform independent. On another note, I believe that your question in this context is very similar to asking: "Would someone please explain how the above information impacts Cisco?" The reason that I say this is that NetWare is a very specialized OS with specialized capabilities that no other OS can provide. NetWare is the leading "I/O pump" that runs on commodity hardware. Windows, and even Linux, are general purpose OSs. And Novell will continue to lead in this area as other operating systems are burdened with "general purpose application" capabilities. This is the root of the problem ... you can't be a specialized generalist! You either do one thing extremely well, or a lot of things ok. ;-) > TIA, EOM > fb Scott C. Lemon