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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: WeisbrichA who wrote (17820)3/12/1999 2:18:00 AM
From: Rusty Johnson  Respond to of 74651
 
E-Commerce May Be One Race Microsoft Can't Win

It's trailing badly. Will it come from behind?

Business Week Online

When Microsoft stakes out new territory, the industry giant makes its intentions clear. On Mar. 4, Microsoft Corp. packed
close to 200 analysts, investors, and reporters into the Argent Hotel in San Francisco for a three-hour pep rally to convey
one message: The company aims to become a kingpin in electronic commerce. ''This is a slam dunk for us,'' declared
Chairman and CEO William H. Gates III.

That depends on how you're keeping score. For all the fanfare, most of Microsoft's new wares merely match those
introduced months or even years ago by competitors. Comparative shopping, for instance, which allows Netizens to
check prices and products from a variety of vendors in one place, was introduced by Yahoo! Inc. in 1997. Microsoft's
version of the service won't be out until late this year.

Indeed, none of Microsoft's new E-commerce initiatives will be available to customers before then. ''Competitors should
say, 'Thank you very much,''' says Bill Burnham, E-commerce analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston. ''Even if they just get
up and come to work over the next 12 months, they will stay well ahead of Microsoft's vision.''

Clearly, Microsoft has a long way to go before it can claim the lead in E-commerce software--programs used to manage
online shopping and other transactions. Ask customers such as Matthew Hyde, vice-president for online sales at REI
Inc., a seller of outdoor gear. A year ago, when he was shopping for software to run his company's Web store, Microsoft
was so far behind that he questioned its commitment to the new market and chose IBM's Net.Commerce software
instead. ''I made the bet for the long haul, and Microsoft's offerings aren't compelling enough for me to switch,'' Hyde
adds.

Of course, Microsoft has been in this come-from-behind situation before--most famously when it saw Netscape
Communications Corp. and others taking the lead in Internet technology. Microsoft leveraged its assets--mainly control
over the Windows operating system--to make up for lost time. Virtually overnight, the company watched its share of the
browser market go from the single digits to more than 50% today. Netscape, which had controlled close to 80% of the
market, was nearly squashed in the process.

Microsoft wants to do the same to the likes of Yahoo! and America Online Inc.--using a similar strategy. The company's
game plan: beef up the Microsoft Network (MSN) into a more potent Web portal by adding an unparalleled menu of
software products and services. Among other things, Microsoft will update its low-cost commerce software to enable
online merchants to create more personalized Web stores. The key part of its initiative is BizTalk, a business-to-business
tool that lets companies operating on different systems do business with one another over the Net even if they have never
done business together before.

''A BIG FIGHT.'' Microsoft believes that by offering the soup-to-nuts E-commerce system, it will leapfrog the likes of
Netscape/America Online. The reason? By controlling the operating system, software, services, and portal, Microsoft can
create seamless links between the different technologies and offer the whole enchilada at a low price. ''No one has the
integration that we will have,'' says Rich Tong, a Microsoft vice-president. That, says Paul Moulton, Costco Wholesale
senior vice-president for information systems, is ''worth waiting for.''

Microsoft also would like to set standards for E-commerce software with its new offerings. But that effort is sure to be
challenged by companies that don't want to see its power extended into a new arena. ''There's going to be a big fight on
this,'' says Michael Putnam, an analyst at Forrester Research Inc.

To be sure, when Microsoft stakes out a market, competitors pay careful attention. ''We have a great deal of respect for
these guys,'' says Timothy A. Koogle, chairman and CEO of Yahoo! Up to now, Microsoft's slow start has let
newcomers, such as BroadVision, Bluestone, and Ariba grab share and land heavyweight customers such as Staples and
Dreyfus. Then again, Netscape once had the browser market all sewn up.

By Michael Moeller in San Mateo, Calif.