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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (39714)	3/12/1999 8:56:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

The Art of War - rule #1 - ''Know they Enemy'' The enemy is the Street - Hedge fund traders, Mutual Fund Mangers, Arbs, Oil Futures Traders and for me - the ""Johnnie Come Latelys & Mo-Mo - lets jump on the bandwagon boys'' ... You need to first; know what the ''Enemy'' is thinking: here is what they are thinking. from the TSC: - subscribe & make money & learn ! (if I cut & past ''their'' article - I think it's fair to link a subsc offer) thestreet.com ******************************************************************************* by the ''fav'' - Mav; Mavis Scanlon <<Since the news broke Wednesday that key oil ministers would gather in Amsterdam Thursday in an attempt to hammer out production cuts ahead of their regularly scheduled March 23 meeting, consensus has grown that the group will cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day. A cut of that magnitude would eliminate oversupply but wouldn't address the inventory overhang, according to the International Energy Agency, a Paris-based energy consulting firm. It also is significant as it illustrates a newfound cooperation and commitment among the major oil producers to bolster sagging prices. But analysts say it will be nowhere near enough to offset the drop in demand for crude in coming months. For one thing, actual cuts almost never match announced cuts. Compliance with last year's agreement to cut just over 3 million barrels per day was estimated at 77% for last month. So a stated cut of 1.5 million barrels most likely would yield a cut of only 1.1 million barrels. Then there is the fact that crude demand historically drops in the second quarter, as it falls between the higher-demand winter heating-oil season and the summer driving season. The IEA estimates demand will fall to 73.2 million barrels per day in the second quarter from an estimated 74.9 million barrels per day in the current quarter. OPEC "might cut production but not by enough to produce a deficit," says Tim Evans, senior oil analyst at Pegasus Econometric Group in New York. "Over the course of the second quarter we'll see inventories rising and that gives the market the option of focusing on rising inventories rather then saying, 'Well, OPEC cut, so we've got a bottom in place.'" Jack Aydin, a managing director in New York at McDonald Investments, concurs that expectations are very optimistic, with cuts of up to 1.5 million barrels already priced in. So any disappointment over the meeting's outcome could lead to a drop in prices. Indeed, it could take cuts of as much as 2 million barrels per day if the oil price rally is to continue, says Phil Flynn, an energy analyst and vice president at Alaron Trading, a Chicago commodities trading firm. If the amount is exactly 1.5 million barrels, the market will be disappointed, he says. >> ******************************************************************************* So, now we have consensus that 1.5 Million boe of IMMEDIATE NEW CUTS are priced in right here - anything less will be a disappoitment; read a SELLOFF ! - act accordingly. May be a real good day to watch the tape & the news today ... - a ''out of the ordinary'' spike in crude futures up will be the big buy signal - a short spike down may trigger profit taking coming... good luck Never has planning your trades and trading your plan meant so much... PS -- our fav' sweet Maria B of CNBC - just hyped the Oils again pre-open ! now what does that tell us ? - marcC don't answer......<VBG> . Buckle Up boys - its going to be fun !