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To: JungleInvestor who wrote (39716)3/12/1999 9:04:00 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™  Respond to of 95453
 
Although I don't yet agree that Japan is really on the recovery road.... (for example, they just reported their 5th qtr in a row shrinking gdp)......that folks (mm's) want to believe it is certainly a decent way to place a bet imo..... nearly everywhere you go at the moment is predicated on pure thin air....

regards

Joel



To: JungleInvestor who wrote (39716)3/12/1999 9:06:00 AM
From: marc chatman  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
<<(poor fellow that said he was going to short yesterday)>>

In a bull market or sustained rally (although it remains to be seen if we are in either), the short seller may be the best friend of those who are long. Since I'm long OS, I would never discourage anyone from selling short -- it's always good to have more friends. <g>



To: JungleInvestor who wrote (39716)3/12/1999 9:26:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Jungle:

If you recall I have argued for a long time the basic economics would dictate to prodcers that they must hang together or hang seperately. That is the demand for oil is very inelastic; a modest surplus sends prices crashing and a modest shortfall sends them surging. My argument that a 5% cut in supply would lift prices 30-50% is being born out by reality.

I still say the the prime cause for the failure of the big oil producers to agree on cuts in the past was US opposition and its ability to dictate the oil policies of key OPEC memebers Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to a large extent. I also opined that oil prices were recently too low for even the US and we would no longer attempt to block an OPEC agreement.

No proof, but I suspect that this is a key factor behind the much better news we are hearing on the oil front these days. But if and when oil threatens to go above $20 look for US to do all it can to keep such a breakout from happening.



To: JungleInvestor who wrote (39716)3/12/1999 9:46:00 AM
From: RealMuLan  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
<<poor fellow that said he was going to short yesterday>>

Thanks for remembering me. Shorted and covered, .75 point gain, which is pretty good for my day trading. Real thing or not, we will see. The key is the demand. With a very possible Chinese currency devaluation, and possibly another round for other SE Asian countries, not to mention LA currency difficulty, the oil recovery is perhaps farther than you think.

Good luck.