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Technology Stocks : Advanced Radio Telecom (ARTT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SteveG who wrote (470)	3/12/1999 11:40:00 AM
From: SteveG	Respond to of 1176

oops (left this out): . For many of the CLECs we follow, internet related reciprocal compensation played an important role in 4Q98 results including: e.spire (12% of 4Q rev. and 31% of sequential rev. growth); Electric Lightwave (excluding $2M of prior period reciprocal compensation rev., reciprocal compensation comprised 20% of 4Q rev. and 31% of sequential rev. growth); ICG (22% of 4Q rev. and 50% of sequential rev. growth); and, Intermedia (6% of 4Q rev. and well over 100% of sequential rev. growth). For NEXTLINK, RCN and Teligent, this issue was not relevant as these companies have little or no internet-related reciprocal compensation exposure. · At December 31, 1998, new entrants' (CLECs and the local efforts of the large LD companies) revenue share of the estimated $105B US local telecom market stood at 5.0%, up 64 basis points from the Sept. 30 share of 4.3% and up 130 basis points from June 30 share of 3.7%, in line with our expectations. On an annualized basis, all new entrants gained market share at an annualized rate of 2.5% during 4Q98, up 40 basis points vs. the 2.1% annualized rate during 3Q98. · During 4Q98, new entrants added an estimated 794,000 net local access lines, 9% above our estimate of 726,000 net adds. · 4Q98 EBITDA performance for many of the CLECs we follow was below expectations due to disappointing gross margins. The one bright spot for quarterly EBITDA performance was ICG's crossover to positive EBITDA for the first time. · After the reporting of 4Q98 results, we have lowered full year '99 and '00 revenue and EBITDA estimates for e.spire and Electric Lightwave. For e.spire, we now expect a slower ramp up of local line adds in light of the lower than expected rate of 4Q on-net line adds. In addition, we have widened our EBITDA loss estimates to reflect higher expected costs related to efforts to boost the firm's ability to add on-net lines. For Electric Lightwave, our estimate revisions were focused on the lower than expected growth rate of data revenues as the benefit from new initiatives have been slow to materialize. In addition, we have widened our EBITDA loss levels resulting from a mix shift in revenues towards lower margined LD services. We note that we have made no changes to our full year '99 and '00 forecasts for ICG, Intermedia, NEXTLINK, RCN and Teligent.

To: SteveG who wrote (470)	3/12/1999 11:41:00 AM
From: MangoBoy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1176

<< With it's internet strategy, ARTT and SPDE (in BBFW) seem susceptible to the following analysis. ARTT's attempt to increase shareholder value by building internet access (voice is FAR more costly and challenging) may not pay off >> I'm missing how that conclusion flows from the analysis. The concluding comments at the end seems to augur well for all FBBW and anyone else who can bypass RBOC local plant. The reciprocal comp. stuff only impacts wireline CLECs and ISPs, right? Thanks again for sharing all these great reports.