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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (8067)	3/12/1999 1:59:00 PM
From: Daflye	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

A little note from the fly on da wall, me. Again bartending has its advantages, last night the conversation of many "wealthy" Philadelphians was about........take a guess........ DOW 10,000. The public is full on waitin' and waitin' and waitin', they smell it like a shark does blood. One man promised his wife new hardwood floors when the DOW hit 10,000. Not "if", "when". One hairdresser praised himself for buying into Janus 20 monday, "just in time ". Two women were talking about funds, one was asking about a correction, the other responded with, "we just had one, the market's fine. And one little indicator I always find amusing, IBD sales in the Rittenhouse Sq. WAWA (local all night convenience store chain), when the market gets choppy, usually towards the bottom of a correction IBD is sold out early, at 2 a.m. last night there were still 3 on the stand, and a ton of WSJ. No need to follow the market, it's gettin' better. The public seems to feel safe right now. Oh well. All true and kinda funny, from my perspective. Cheers, D

To: donald sew who wrote (8067)	3/13/1999 3:09:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I have been extremely busy and have been neglecting the market as of late, I am not too concerned because I feel waiting on the sidelines is probably the most prudent strategy right now but a few things have me concerned and puzzled. I ran my scans and charts last night and as we all know, only a few stocks are holding up the indexes. Credit card companies such as PVN, AXP; Telecoms like QWST, FON, WCOM; and an even smaller number of techs like EMC,SUNW and of course the oils and brokers. My scans are starting to show many of the small beaten up stocks approaching buy areas as they become drastically over sold. This allows two scenarios in my view. We either 1.) Finally capitulate and the minority of stocks holding up the indexes fold and we have the expected drop probably in the latter half of this year due to Y2K scares etc, or 2.) The small beaten stocks start a recovery that push the indexes over the hump and this is what pushes the DOW over 11K and the celebration resumes as we power on so the blow hards can say we are in a new bull market. Now when I say small stocks, I am not talking about peeny stocks and BB stocks etc but instead am implying the mid caps and even some of the larger cap stocks that are being slaughtered as of late. The software companies have been led out back and executed quuietly while no one was looking as have many other industries. There are numerous companies I track that have 30-60% growth that are trading at PE ratios from 8-25. I am not bullish by any means and most indexes I track are showing over bought but I did start receiving buy signals on many of the smaller beaten up issues for the first time in a while that I did not expect to get. This could just be an indication that the selling is still hot and heavy as I do realize that over sold stocks can continue to be oversold for a loooooong time as they continue to be dumped. God knows I have had to remove my indicators on many charts due to them generating buy signals that I know are false everyday as they continue to go "more on sale" everyday. I am not sure I have any answers yet but hope to get some time in the near future to look at some of my other charts that I rarely peek at to get a feel for how the broader market is shaping up and figure out if the selling should continue or there is about to be a bounce in the less loved sectors in this market that could spur the next rally. Even if this rally does occur, it could only prove to be the small cap style rally William Hueb has been waiting for to signal the final top to this bull as it exposes it's throat to the claws of the bear. Good Luck, Lee