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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: B.K.Myers who wrote (4571)	3/12/1999 2:55:00 PM
From: Howard Clark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

DOE is not projected to finish until 2004 and only 44 percent of their mission-critical systems will be compliant by OMB's deadline of March 1999. To make bad worse, they also have poor contingency plans, telecommunications systems, and embedded systems. If there was such a thing as F minus, DOE has earned it. In the latest report card, DOE was raised from an F to a B. I guess they aced the midterm. freedom.gov

To: B.K.Myers who wrote (4571)	3/19/1999 2:13:00 PM
From: B.K.Myers	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

Y2K And The Erosion Of The Middle Ground posted on "TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) Q&A Forum" by Arnie Rimmer Somewhere between "a bump in the road" and "the end of the world as we know it" lies the Middle Ground. It is a place where bad things can and do happen but where people with courage, skills and determination work together to overcome difficulties. They don't always succeed -- for The Middle Ground is not a fairy tale universe where everyone lives happily ever after. Sometimes success is only partial and is often bittersweet. The Middle Ground not a pretty facade, a bedtime story or a marketing campaign. It is not a place where denying reality helps you to see the next sunrise. It is a place where risk must be accessed and fears faced. It is a place of surprises, not all of which are pleasant. It is a place where luck can be just as important as prudent preparation. The Middle Ground is where Captain Alfred Haynes and the crew of United Flight 232 landed their DC-10 aircraft that July afternoon 10 years ago. At 3:16pm on July 19th, 1989, United Flight 232, suffered a catastrophic engine failure while cruising at 37,000 feet. The fan rotor of the aircraft's number two engine disintegrated, causing the loss of all three of the aircraft's redundant hydraulic flight control systems. This made the aircraft nearly impossible to control. "Everyone was confident that the complete loss of all flight controls was impossible." But everyone was wrong. The companies responsible for the aircraft were so confident, in fact, that pilots were not even trained for such an "impossible" scenario. The designers were very proud of their design and their attention to detail, safety and redundancy. When first reports of the loss of control systems were broadcast, company PR reps rushed to say how "impossible" this was. It had to be something else. The odds were said to be "one chance in a billion". But the odds were not flying the aircraft that day, Captain Haynes was. The crew soon knew that the aircraft was in very serious trouble. The crew of United 232 did not deny that the problem was real nor did they waste time "thinking positive thoughts" or telling passengers and air traffic controllers "everything will be OK". Neither did they give up and let the plane fall from the sky. They walked the Middle Ground. It can be a very narrow place to find your footing sometimes. But through a combination of luck, skill and preparation of the flight crew, the air traffic controllers and the emergency response personnel, the aircraft and its passenger took the only path that remained for them that day. Without the prudent preparations of all these people, the Middle Ground would have vanished. There were 285 people on board United 232. For 111 of them, it was indeed the end of the world. For many who lost loved ones, it was also the end of the world as they knew it. But had the crew not stood on the Middle Ground, somewhere between denial and despair, 174 more people would have perished that day. As a professional software developer, I know that the Y2K problem is real. I also know that the potential for disruptions of our infrastructure is also real. What I cannot tell you is precisely what will happen and how bad it will be. There are just too many variables. But I am convinced that serious preparation by all people is a prudent and wise thing to do. It adds a resilience that allows us to collectively withstand moderate disruptions without panicking. I am also convinced that we will face nothing so horrible in Y2K that it cannot be overcome by prudent preparations. But lacking those preparations, we needlessly erode the Middle Ground. Could Y2K be a 'bump in the road'? I suppose it could, but I am becoming increasingly pessimistic. I think somewhere in the middle is much more likely. But as I have watched Y2K unfold over the last several months, it is the continuing erosion of the Middle Ground that concerns me the most. Companies and governments have rushed to deny that such a ridiculous possibility exists. They worry only about their own corner of the universe and seek to protect it at all costs. Perceptions become more important than realities and the danger signs are ignored wherever they occur. Missed deadlines seem to mean nothing. They have collectively brought their public relations guns to bear in a war to convince everyone that significant infrastructure disruptions are absolutely impossible. They point to the extreme in a short-sighted attempt to discredit the middle. They collectively discourage significant preparations by the masses. In doing so, they dangerously erode the Middle Ground. For if it turns out that such disruptions are anything more than a "bump in the road", they will surely regret their folly. So will we all. greenspun.com B.K.