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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (4576)	3/12/1999 3:08:00 PM
From: flatsville	Respond to of 9818

Ooops-- Issue date: 11 February 1999 Article source: Computer Weekly News Can we believe rosy year 2000 picture? Bill Goodwin Are the UK's largest firms on track to deal with the year 2000 problem? The question is a crucial one for year 2000 managers, with profound implications for the integrity of the supply chain and the economy. Until last week the answer seemed clear. Headline research figures released by the government-funded watchdog, Action 2000, showed that 90% of the UK's largest companies are well on target to beat the bug. In the words of Action 2000 boss Don Cruickshank, "Those businesses and key public services in the UK that need to be ready, will be ready." But these findings are now been called into question by year 2000 experts and campaigning groups. At issue are the raw figures behind Action 2000's conclusions. Taskforce 2000 and other year 2000 experts claimed last week the data did not support the survey's reassuring conclusions. In fact, Action 2000 has based its findings on two key pieces of research into large firms: a telephone survey of 200 companies employing more than 500 people and a postal survey of nearly all the FTSE 500 companies. It has assessed how far each company has progressed with its year 2000 programme on the basis of its responses to a series of detailed questions. Its findings are supported by anecdotal evidence from Action 2000's National Infrastructure Forum. The nub of the controversy, though, is not what the figures reveal - it is what they do not reveal. For example, the telephone survey shows that one-third of large companies have completed their inventory and impact assessments (see table). But it is not clear from the figures how far they have progressed beyond this stage with their remediation, testing and contingency planning. The FTSE 500 survey is equally confusing. It shows that although one-third have done enough work to function in the year 2000, nearly half are only at the stage of having finished their inventories and impact assessments. Once more the figures say nothing about whether they have made progress on their remediation, testing and contingency planning. Ripple effect More worryingly, one in five of the UK's biggest firms have not completed the first stage of their year 2000 programmes - their inventories. If they suffer year 2000 failures, the ripples will be felt across the economy. This alarming statistic, coupled with the apparent vagueness of other figures in the survey, has raised alarm bells among year 2000 experts. Robin Guenier, director of pressure group Taskforce 2000, said he did not understand how Action 2000 could possibly conclude that 90% of the UK's large firms were on track from these figures. And Dave Walton, year 2000 consultant, said, "I would like to see anyone who is statistically literate agreeing with Action 2000." Asking consultants for their opinions does not provide much clarification either. Chris Webster, head of year 2000 communication at Cap Gemini, admitted he was mystified by Action 2000's figures. But his firm's own research combined with his own experience suggest that Action 2000 is probably right. Malcolm Stirling, partner for Y2K and Emu and KPMG, also believes that 90% of his larger clients are on track. Others take the opposite view. Karl Feilder, head of Greenwich Mean Time, said that too many large companies were still failing to address year 2000 problems in their PC systems. "The situation is quite bad," he said. And Chris Finch of Y2K specialist Micro Focus said that companies that believe they had fixed their systems often had hidden problems. Contradictions Other surveys seem to contradict Action 2000. The latest, from Taskforce 2000 and law firm Dibb Lupton Alsop, paints a far bleaker picture than Action 2000's work. An alarming 45% of large firms have yet to complete their embedded chip inventories. And one in 10 left it until last year to begin their year 2000 programmes. Its findings, however, have been publicly pilloried by Cruickshank. The survey should be ignored, he said, because of its small sample size - 60 companies. Amid the claims and counter claims, who should year 2000 managers believe? Action 2000 promised this week that it would clear up the confusion by releasing full details of its research to Computer Weekly. Ben Skelton, head of statistics at Action 2000, said he would re-analyse the data over the next 10 days to show in detail just how far large firms have got in their remediation and testing programmes. In future surveys, he said, Action 2000 would give a much more detailed picture. He rejected suggestions from critics that Action 2000 had tried to hide the results of its research. When Action 2000 released its findings, the full breakdown of its research was not available, he said. "We were trying to get the information before the press briefing. The data only came together the day before," he said. It has since published further results on the Internet. "It is wrong to say that our results have been leaked. We would have offered our findings to anyone who requested a copy," he revealed. Action 2000's openness in offering to re-analyse its data to provide a more detailed picture should reassure year 2000 managers. Computer Weekly will report the results as soon as it has them. Summary of Action 2000's conclusions % of firms in FTSE 500 % of firms with 500+ staff All systems fully ready 6% 6% Enough work completed to function in year 2000 29% 53% Programme established, inventory and impact assessment complete 45% 33% Programme scheduled and resources committed 14% 5% Aware, taken some steps but no formal programme 6% 1%

To: John Mansfield who wrote (4576)	3/12/1999 6:50:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

LOL - Whoever told people to NOT buy their services. It's so, so sad that so many try to honestly help people ... while at the other end of the spectrum are those that try to hurt people. PLEASE DON'T BUY THE Y2KADVISORS SERVICE IF YOU DON'T NEED IT! If you are well on your way to being prepared for Y2k, then please don't join the Y2kAdvisors service. I know this goes against conventional sales wisdom to tell people not to buy my service, but whether or not people believe it I'm not in this to turn a buck. This service is designed to help people who are just now waking up to Y2k or really overwhelmed in trying to prepare. It is not designed for Y2k "armchair experts." Message 8291068 Cheryl