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To: JHR who wrote (7750)	3/12/1999 4:28:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

JHR, One indicator that I have kept a close eye on was the April versus May crude future. I have been noticing that the two have been trading at par with each other for the last two days - no time premium for the extra month. This means that traders were discounting the sustainability of oil price between now and a month later. That was the last two days. Today I see the time premium reemerged on the May contract. Check the day quote and go to the energy section: 206.58.168.233 Notice how they opened this morning, before the unofficial Amsterdam announcement. May actually opened lower than April. But now look where they close - May closed well above April for a change. I don't know when the April contract expires but it is pretty close, maybe before March 23. So by this I am saying the street traders are beginning to believe in the sustainability of oil price more so now today by close than before today. That is the result of the Amsterdam announcement. Where will the drillers go next week - if oil can stabilize within +/- 50 cents, I would say the drillers would continue to churn with an upside bias until the official OPEC words is out, which will be either March 22 (they can preannounce) or March 23. Then things will get really volatile and I will look to oil price for guidance at that point. Too far out to call here. Remove two chips off the table today (FGI and CAM). Still have RIG and VRC. May reenter again next week.