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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (2221)	3/12/1999 10:58:00 PM
From: Buster O. Hype	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7772

Doug ... Doug ... Doug ... Here are your revenue estimates and assuming EBAY gets an average of 5% on the auction sales generated, your estimates assume this much auction business: REVENUES AUCTION BUSINESS 1999 - $200M - $4 B 2000 - $700M - $14 B 2001 - $1.8B - $36 B 2002 - $4.0B - $80 B 2003 - $7.5B - $150B 2004 - $12.0B- $240B 2005 - $19.0B- $380B Last time I heard, GDP (a reflection of economic activity) rose by 5%. Last time I heard, retail sales were growing at a healthy 5-10% annual rate. Last time I heard, wages were going up 5-8% annually. My question then is if EBAY generates 380 billion in auction business in year 6, who would be suffering. Don't forget, traditional business plus E business is a zero-sum game. And how about the 100 other auctioneers, are they going to do as well??? You really think that if there is a business as hot as you project it, that there won't be any competition??? Suppose an auctioneer comes up with a site, charges the same commission, offers a more organized approach (as in limiting categories to only those that can be guaranteed), offers protection for both buyers and sellers, why would EBAY be better than this. Or a specialized auction for items bigger than $10,000? Point is, this is America and the one thing certain is if its hot, it will attract a lot of copycats.