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To: Dennis who wrote (10049)3/12/1999 11:14:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth  Respond to of 19080
 
OT--Estimates Web Site

I don't mean to trash the analysts. They, by definition, are outsiders with limited access to information and incomplete understanding of all the technologies. And I'm sometimes amazed by the insights they provide. I read my full-service broker's material religiously, as well as Value Line.

I do think some analysts are better than others, and some have better access or understanding of some companies than others--just as individual investors have better comfort with some companies than others. (I'm a lot more comfortable with Property Casualty Insurance companies than Life Insurance companies for instance; if I was an analyst, I'd likely be handling both).

My point really goes to the companies. How visible are their forward earnings? With the information provided by Zacks right now, you can't tell. But, by comparing actual results with estimates made 30 days earlier, or estimates as of the date of fiscal period end, you'd have greater or lesser confidence in those estimates in subsequent quarters.

1. I get to do the design.
2. It's free. Web companies don't have earnings--we're playing for the IPO.<g>

Best,
JS




To: Dennis who wrote (10049)3/12/1999 11:39:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19080
 
I forgot one other point. I am bothered by the way recommendations so often occur after a stock has made a big move. It would take more nerve, and would lead to greater errors, for an analyst to recommend a stock that is just sitting there. But they would be forced to do more fundamental work--and their ideas might have more value.

-------
3. IPO should be for 10 million shares, priced at $10. I'll take 10% of the public entity. If we hit it right, it will bounce to $45 on the first day of trading and I'll sell. <g>

Best,
JS




To: Dennis who wrote (10049)3/13/1999 12:25:00 AM
From: Michael Young  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19080
 
<<I can't understand why people get upset when investors trash the experts......isn't that the job of the analyst...to rate a stock buy, sell, hold, etc, etc. .....seems like they can be wrong more often than the weatherman and NOT be held accountable.>>

Most analysts unfortunately just take cues from the company. Blaming Larry Ellison is more appropriate than blaming the analysts in this instance.

MIKE