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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Brannon who wrote (11096)	3/13/1999 2:24:00 AM
From: timbur	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

Jim, what I'm concerned with is 3Dfx letting the high-end throne escape their grasp. Currently, the online enthusiast will run with SLI-V2, but the single player enthusiast will often run with a TNT to get the 32-bit color. Until Q3 or another very popular very complex game comes out, this will probably remain the case, with V3 replacing the SLI setup for online performance. If TNT2 comes out within 6 weeks of the V3, and performs like Sharky and Tom thinks it will (BIG IF!) then V3-3500 sales can be hurt significantly. But V3-2000 and V3-3000 sales should not be hurt because of the price points. These products are where the money is at for 3Dfx/STB. And this shuld make 3Dfx a good investment based on the fundamentals. Whether the market awards that performance is another thing. I think the V3-3500 was produced by 3Dfx as a way to try to maintain some high-end respect while the 2000 and 3000 milk the 3500 reviews for retail and OEM success. I have no problem with that, as long as they are able to take the high-end lead in Q3 with the rumored "Rampage". I'm hoping they have the part mostly finished, and are waiting for the right moment to release it, both technologically and business-wise. Tim

To: Jim Brannon who wrote (11096)	3/13/1999 2:59:00 PM
From: Tae Spam Kim	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

Excuse me Jim, I take offense at your remarks. I was ONE OF FIRST 3dfx bulls, one of FIRST people to post on this board, and I believe I know 3dfx's model very well. The sad fact is 3dfx LOST its lead in technology to Nvidia. 3dfx basically DID nothing new after Voodoo1. Voodoo2 is basically is the same technology as Voodoo1 with a new TMU. Banshee is a castrated Voodoo2 with good 2d. And Voodoo3 is a enhanced Voodoo2 Banshee. Meanwhile, Nvidia comes out with TnT which is as fast as Voodoo2 with better image quality. Obviously Nvidia over-hyped TnT, but the simple fact is Tnt is one heck of a card. Nvidia learned their lesson and kept their mouth shut about Tnt2. Now that we know what Tnt2 is going to be like, it's sad that 3dfx has been caught AND overtaken. -Tae Kim P.S. Things are getting a little spicy on here. :) <<all the rest will die, then you know next to NOTHING about about this business. Please buy 3DFX boards, not the company's stock, and sell your shares to real INVESTORS. 3DFX is still a great investment because of the company's potential TO EARN MONEY. DO you REALLY think that NVDA and DIMD will mass produce the millions of 200 megahertz sub-$100 TNT2's in April that it would take to put all the other 3D card companies out of business? Ofcourse, you don't. That is totally absurd. I can't wait for the discussion on these boards to return to the usual RATIONAL discourse.>>

To: Jim Brannon who wrote (11096)	3/13/1999 6:51:00 PM
From: dumbmoney	Respond to of 16960

My $0.02... all graphics chip companies are lousy investments. Fast-moving speculators can make money but buy-and-hold types should look to more stable sectors. This is a business where you can go from top dog to the doghouse overnight. Remember when S3 was king of the world? Remember when Tseng Labs was a big wheel? 3dfx had an interesting "content" story at one time (Sega console, Glide,...) that, if it had worked, would have put them in a good long-term position. Well, it didn't work, so 3dfx has to fight for scraps just like everyone else.

To: Jim Brannon who wrote (11096)	3/14/1999 7:25:00 PM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 16960

finally, a rational person!

To: Jim Brannon who wrote (11096)	3/14/1999 10:18:00 PM
From: Waldeen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

Jim, nice post, this board has gone nuts with posts this weekend.... trying to keep up. On the Voodoo3 vs. TNT2 debate going on here, I suggest people try to switch shoes: imagine for an instant you are a 3dfx stock holder but your product and product map is Nvidia's TNT/TNT2, and that you are a Nvidia stock holder with who has just purchased a card manufacturer (STBI), and released info on Voodoo3 by Jan. of this year. Can you see reactions on this "hypothetical 3dfx board" like "Well it's about time we released information on TNT2, we've only heard about Voodoo3 for months now. And the product is late to market, and when it does get to market, Nvidia is going to release their high-end Voodoo3 4000, not to mention their next generation Rampage product, this stock is a dog. About the only thing we got going for us is 32 bit color. Hope someone cares about that, the extra cost of the 32 bit memory better not hurt us with OEM wins. And how are we going to compete on OEM's now that our OEM house has merged with our competitor." Seem reasonable? The stockholders on this board are quite demanding on 3Dfx, which is good, but Patrick's right Message 8307591 NO question Nvidia does a better job than 3Dfx on hand-holding the PR, especially when you look at how they sent people with their new TNT2 cards to make sure the review went right, and 3Dfx got embroiled in controversy because the reviewer decides to overclock a reference board. Who benefited from who's 'mistake' here? And everytime 3Dfx is ready to release their new products, Nvidia hype about the late release of their same generation board sems to always spoil the 3Dfx party. Nvidia has a better PR machine than 3Dfx, but I hope 3Dfx doesn't improve to that level. Personally, I try not to buy the product from the company with the best salesman, but buy the best product that fits my needs from my own research and judgement of the facts. Let's compare 'generations' of board design, and who released first My rough 'generation' number listed first, leaving off first Voodoo product on purpose. 1. Voodoo2 - Voodoo2 first to market, no Nvidia product of same caliber. 2. TNT and Banshee TNT - roughly same generation as Voodoo, but new generation do to 2D core Banshee - roughly same generation as TNT, with 2D core 3. Voodoo3 (i.e. Banshee2) and TNT2 - looks like 3Dfx first to market 4. Rampage and ? The first 3 generations of these products gives firsts to market on 2 of 3 generations to 3Dfx. And 3Dfx even acknowledges they made a mistake on not working on Banshee simultaneously so that it was released earlier. The real question in my mind, if I was an Nvidia stock holder, would be that we are releasing our Voodoo3 generation product late. And given that we know 3Dfx has Rampage in the works, I'd be real worried that Nvidia isn't waiting until TNT2 ships to start working on the answer to Rampage. Since they are both using the same Fab, Nvidia is very likely benefiting from 3Dfx being first to smaller sizes with Voodoo3. So manufacturing wise neither has an advantage, so product cycle times matter. Bottom line, if TNT2 is a better product than Voodoo3 2000/3000, it will be questionable against Voodoo3 4000.... AND it looks like, IMO, they are in danger of slipping a product cycle! Okay, maybe that's a bit strong, but quoting Patrick, "P.P.S. If first silicon is just being benchmarked today for TNT, there is no way in h*ll this thing will see the light of day before May. V3 hit the web four months ago. That's about the usual time to market from the first sample run." Ditto. Actually, I might argue on the OEM front they may slip more since 3Dfx now has STBI. The benefit of vertical integration. When's Rampage going to be out? Well, if not slipping a product cycle, they are at least 3-4 months behind in a product cycle that used to be "18 months", and is now more like 8-12 months. So they are now 1/3 to 1/2 a product cycle behind, and slipping, IMO. If they don't have an answer to Rampage already in the works, and Rampage releases... So the question is, has anybody heard about what follows TNT2? Waldeen