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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (946)	3/13/1999 10:21:00 AM
From: Bill Fischofer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5853

Thanks Perhaps George will chime in if we've strayed too far from his reasoning, but I think Java really was key to SUNW's selection. First, let me note that selection isn't permanent. NSCP was "shown the door", as was APLX, TLAB, and CIEN (the last having been recently readmitted). Second, SUNW's selection on the simple basis of producing server hardware makes no sense given that other hardware vendors (IBM, HWP, CPQ, DELL, etc.) are not also members. Clearly SUNW isn't there because of Sparc, or else INTC should also be there since Sparc will never claim more than a tiny percentage of the total deployed computing capacity. And it certainly isn't due to Solaris which despite its popularity is pretty much just a proprietary dialect of Unix which is limited to one vendor's hardware offerings. One might even argue that Linux should be regarded as a "disruptive technology" that clearly threatens all OS vendors, especially those selling Unix variants. No, it seems that Java is the key ascendent technology that singled out SUNW. But if Java becomes an open standard that is controlled by no single company or organization, then doesn't this change things? An analogy may help. Consider that C and C++ are currently far more important to the software industry than Java is. Which company do you think of first when you think of these technologies? The answer is you don't because they are international standards that incorporate ideas from many sources. The fact that both originated at Bell Labs (then part of T) is an interesting bit of history but no more. If in ten years Java is everywhere but the price of that ubiquity is that it is just another ISO standard controlled by no single entity then how does SUNW leverage its parentage? Conversely, if SUNW retains control of Java but the price of that control is very limited deployment then again how does SUNW benefit? It seems that the whole argument for Java making SUNW a telecosm company is the belief that Java will displace Windows as the dominant computing platform and that SUNW will retain sufficient control of it to extract monopoly rents. Whether or not one believes this scenario will come to pass, I don't see how one can argue for Java giving SUNW ascendency status without making this case.