To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (53213 ) 3/13/1999 8:58:00 AM From: rupert1 Read Replies (1) | Respond to
For those who don't want to scroll through the Barrons article here is the "relevant" bits mentioned by EL Sorry I posted the whole thing and posted part of it twice - my "delete" button wouldn't work: I am having quite a lot of trouble with SI access lately.Compaq and Dell computers. Yes, this is a cyclical risk in any industry. Anything addressing this Soho theme -- including financial services -- will be a big growth industry in the millennium. The PC has become a wonderful device. You can access anything in the world that can be digitized through your PC. And the more you push, the more the world becomes digitized. Sure, there's cyclicality. But longer term, the PC is the delivery device, which benefits Compaq and Dell. What will really be unique are the content providers: Time Warner, and again, Disney. Should you buy the Internet stocks? I would say no. Most early new-tech stocks don't thrive, let alone survive. Remember the initial boom in the PC stocks in '82 and '83? By February '84, the 24 leading PC stocks were 50% off their high. Compaq didn't go public until December of '83 and Michael Dell was not in business. The key to technology is not the first and best, but a good business model to marry with the technology. America Online has been very clever, because it created content by creating its own communities of chat rooms. It's a brilliant marketing strategy. So we have AOL on our list, because it's unique. Rather than trying to figure out which browser or e-commerce site will be dominant, go with established companies that can extend their franchise. It's a less risky way of playing a powerful theme.
