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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Casaubon who wrote (8117)	3/13/1999 10:35:00 AM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

by the way, this doji reversal has short shadows and occurred at the top of the previous bullish patterns main body, indicating a rather weak bearish signal. I expect more of a sideways trend (maybe 100 points down) than a reversal. This seems like more of a pause than a real reversal. As I stated, I believe the market will continue its upward trend later in the week.

To: Casaubon who wrote (8117)	3/13/1999 1:02:00 PM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 99985

Casaubon, Good analysis. Concerning candlesticks, per the textbook you are correct about the upper shadow for the Harami; however I do not always go by the textbook. Seeya

To: Casaubon who wrote (8117)	3/25/1999 10:42:00 PM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 99985

this analysis has borne out fairly accurately. I would point out however, an inconsistent statement in the daily analysis. I said, "(%K will probably retrace some of the move up and bounce off the %D line to make another stab at later next week or early the week after.)" This is what will occur on the weekly stochastic, and I apologize for the sloppiness. For the price to decline somewhat as I later claimed, "The +DI just crossed under the ADX signal and I believe this implies and reinforces further downward consolidation" the %K, for mathematical reasons, would necessarily have had to cross below %D, on the daily scale. On the daily scale we have seen this stochastic give rise to a series of lower highs and higher lows. Thus I believe the downside correction is over and %K has reached a local minima, on the daily chart. It will correct upward and and cross on top of %D, as the DJIA makes its next stab at 10K. The weekly 120 period analysis provided is still in play. I will not that the candlestick is currently a "strong line", which I believe supports the next attempt at 10K. The RSI is currently 63.6 on this scale. As I stated earlier, watch for the top when the RSI hits 70 and %K gets to about 95. These numbers are based on series of diminishing RSI maxima, on the weekly scale. I will state, for the record, that my initial analysis called for the move up earlier this week. I will also note that the bullish signal I am seeing here is based on a weekly analytical scale, so give or take a couple of days aint horrible. Of course, I could be full of _ _IT! For OJ, I moved my 401K money out of stock into fixed income 1/4/99, in anticipation of a fragmented year for stocks (since I have no control over what those funds invest in...). Otherwise, my risk capital is mainly in a "biotech" stock, which is expecting approval of their first drug, by mid april (or dissaproval). If and when there is positive news, I will look to write cc's. That's my plan, and I'm shtickin to it!