To: Jon Koplik who wrote (24162 ) 3/13/1999 2:30:00 PM From: Maurice Winn Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
*Cool! Funds Flow* I agree we should not discuss this. Just make a few brief statements. Although none of us know what we are talking about in 'funds flow', neither do we in anything - we just have a passable, for the most part, approximate idea of what's going on and decide on the basis of 99% ignorance. But that still gets most of us near to old age. If we can achieve 98% ignorance, we do twice as well as competing investors. This non-financial debt stuff is somewhat irrelevant to the Real McCoy SuperDs which is really where it's at because the number of those and how long they stay in one place is what defines the sticker price of things. If we borrow somebody's lawnmower, that does increase non-financial debt, but it doesn't affect the value of the lawnmower [unless the lawnmower was sitting unused instead of being on loan to somebody else for a fee]. Even if you lend me $50, or preferably just give it to me, that doesn't affect what my house or shares are worth. But if the Fed prints another $50, that does dilute the $$$ in which my house or shares are priced. So the price of things rises. Unless The New Paradigm is in force or OPEC is in disarray and pumping is happening in which case prices drop [deflation] even though Alan Green$pan has a LOT of fun printing heaps and heaps more billions of dollars so that the USA can have a huge Federal Surplus and the Japanese can print trillions and trillions of Yen without affecting the US$/Yen exchange rate too much which would disrupt trading activity and everyone would have to renegotiate their pay rates, which is a lot of hard work. Remember when the USA had huge budget deficits and everyone thought is was the end of the world coming? Those days have gone, thanks to Qualcomm and others. Sure, the Non-Financial Debt is part of the economic activity going on, but it isn't 'price defining' other than superficially. It can introduce peaks and troughs in prices, but not the underlying 'Against the Gods' reversion to the mean which is determined by the SuperDs which are owned, created and allowed to circulate at the whim of Alan G and co. They can boost or reduce the prudential reserves, they can lend or not lend billions, they can raise or lower interest rates, they can print or not print any amount. I agree, let's not discuss this, but any further statements might be of interest. Thanks for the knowledge about Non-Financial Debt. Actually, I have two broken lawnmowers [the old-fashioned push type] with non-matching parts so I can't combine them into one. If anyone knows where I can borrow a Non-Financial Lawnmower I could make my lawn less ecological. Meanwhile, due to funds flow, oil flow and money supply together with The New Paradigm, Dow 8000 Feb 1998 Dow 16000 Feb 2002 Mqurice PS: Re-reading this, maybe borrowing a lawnmower DOES affect it's value because it gets more use and demand for it goes up and stuff like that. And what if I don't buy more lawnmowers to replace my broken ones because I just borrow one now and then and the lawnmower people sell fewer lawnmowers because everyone just borrows one. This would cause an ecnomic contraction as the lawnmower makers would be unemployed while looking for a cellphone wave function electronic design job. Okay, maybe I don't totally understand funds flow after all, but I'm sure that the Non Financial Debt stuff is pushing along The New Paradigm and people will borrow lawnmowers but not cellphones and the lawnmower makers will want to buy cellphones. Hay! the unemployed lawnmower makers could mow my lawn instead of me borrowing one for a fee and with the money I give them, they could buy a Q! phone to get more lawnmowing contracts - they could convert the grass to Hay! and sell it to the GSM horses [which are not quite dead yet]. I could go to Piha and the golf course.