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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harley Davidson who wrote (20390)	3/13/1999 11:42:00 AM
From: Sword	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 122087

James: I have found via correlation analysis using some of the best numerical statistical methods developed to date that even the best system testing on groups of stocks produces poor results. "Curve fitting" aptly describes what happens even on groups of stocks. The problem is that stock markets can be modeled accurately as "chaotic" systems. They have "singular" events that will throw off the best technical analysis systems. The systems will work for awhile and then something "exogenous" happens that kills you and the system. I don't trust them. The best correlations for predicting performance is found in uncovering large problems in underlying fundamentals and the methods and backgrounds of the company directors and owners. This Anthony does oh so well. It is what I am learning to do as I follow his example and others such as Steve (Pluvia), Archer and others.