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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George Gilder who wrote (953)	3/13/1999 2:49:00 PM
From: Bill Fischofer	Respond to of 5853

No question Java will only grow in importance. I just have a hard time understanding how that will translate into substantive revenue and profits for SUNW. It seems to me that initiatives like Mauve and actions by HWP and others are going to force Java into becoming a completely open-source standard over the next few years that neither SUNW nor anyone else can claim the rights to and extract monopoly rents from. In essence, Java is being disrupted even before it becomes established as a mainstream technology. It seems to me that the Java case for SUNW depends critically on the assumption that SUNW will retain proprietary control of Java and can force others to license it on favorable terms. And while it is hard to imagine that HWP is unique in balking, even if SUNW prevails I don't see how that translates into sufficient revenue to replace their current hardware-based business over time.