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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (6291)	3/13/1999 6:20:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78599

Paul, are we talking about the same industry? From late 1986 to early 1998 Deere's stock went up roughly 10 times in almost a straight line, with only a two year sideways consolidation. A friend and I are discussing only how much of our portfolio we want to put into NH over the next year (if it remains under $9), not whether it is a good idea. In my opinion, NH will double (from 9) sometime within the next 5 years, while paying a 6% annual dividend. Assuming that it takes the whole 5 years, that would be over a 20% compound annual return - which I do not expect the market averages to achieve - and with less risk, with about 30% of the return from dividends.