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Strategies & Market Trends : TA-Quotes Plus -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nine_USA who wrote (8963)	3/13/1999 6:37:00 PM
From: CatLady	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11149

Herb, That is very interesting work you're doing. Does Quotes Plus provide historical data on statistical and fundamental data? Or do you have another source for historical fundies?

To: Nine_USA who wrote (8963)	3/13/1999 7:15:00 PM
From: Richard Estes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11149

Stock splits should only effect a price level study. The present universal means of taking splits into account is the best means. the general correlation I have seen is the lower the price the more movement either way, then we are looking at risk. A $10 stock going to $9 is 10%. The $100 stock going to $99 is 1%. Both are a move of $1. If we think in shares, a 1000 shares both lose a $1000. If we think in terms of money, investing $10,000 in both causes a loss of $1,000 or $100 perspectively. Part of knowing ourselves is knowing our comfort levels. If the S&P is a ruler, how many beat it and at what price did they start? Traders require movement, direction is not important if they are on the right side of trade. If their skills allow them to play risker stocks, the return is higher. If safety is important, they might find comfort in less volatile stocks. I am not questioning your system for you. But everything I have seen says the moves up come from the low side of price. I would think that the 10 to 30 might be a good price range.

To: Nine_USA who wrote (8963)	3/26/1999 10:33:00 AM
From: Craig Monroe	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 11149

I have an idea to offer with no specifics on how to implement it. In my professional area researchers are in the process of developing instruments which predict what characteristics of a person correlate with specific future behaviors. A few years ago, folks depended on individual factors which correlated with future behaviors. The problems here are that not all factors equally predict and that there is overlap in characteristics of the factors (i.e., they have much of the same qualities). The way our field has gotten beyond this (and raised the accuracy of prediction)is through the use of linear regression statistical models. Basically, using statistical software, you find what factor contributes the most prediction, then the next highest contribution,and the next. At some point, there is no increase in predictive ability (far short of 50+ variables)- the statistical packages will identify which variables co-vary so you might want to use one or the other (determined through testing). I'm not a statistician and am sure I have butchered this explaination, but this is one lead. One of the statistical packages commonly used is SPSS.