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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Michael Young who wrote (10088)3/13/1999 6:40:00 PM
From: alydar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19080
 
Let me see. Year over year ORCL's stock price is up well over 50%. True, it was up over a 100% but lets look at things realistically (i.e. Mike). ORCL was overvalued at mid 30's and they did fall a little short (i.e. less than 5% top line growth) in revenue. Maybe Y2K had something to do with this? DELL, CPQ and yes, even the mighty MSFT will have it's own problems.

As a long term holder of the company/stock I am happy with it's performance. They have postioned their product lines very well for internet and this will be realized at some point in time. No one out there can tell me what Y2K's impact is on any technology stock. For most companies it is not good for revenue growth.

Having said that, keep in mind that patience is a virtue, and Mike, and I believe that I can speak for a majority of people who read this thread, either shut up, tone down your MSFT bias, or go away.

Your friend, bob



To: Michael Young who wrote (10088)3/13/1999 6:52:00 PM
From: aps  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 19080
 
Michael,
you really think that analysts have nothing to do with the stock price? do u think orcl would have dropped 22% yesterday if 4 analysts did not downgrade it together?

You talk supply and demand and in free market that is what should determine the price, but there is so much manipulation out there that the supply/demand model has been skewed by mms and analysts working in synch. Their aim is not to work for you to guide you into making good deals, but to serve their own needs. When they put out strong buy, it means that they have already loaded up and will sell into your buying. When they downgrade, it means that want shares from weak hands into theirs at yard sale prices.

What happened with orcl yesterday was ridiculous, almost insane. Whenever a stock goes up or down so much, it is followed by a rebound in the opposite direction. I agree revs were not that great, but they were not so bad, that orcl shareholders deserve a 22% haircut.

Here is what I think the stock will do..It will go back up to around 31 - 32 and then slowly settle down to around where it is right now. Then until orcl makes strong headways into the internet market, it will sit here and move slightly lower. I will short orcl if it touches 32 this week. Once this stock is out of analysts favor, it will go nowhere, that is my experience with orcl. Remember when it was sitting around 24 last year, inspite of strong performance by the company.

later,
aps

p.s. msft is next in line to take a fall. that sucker is overvalued.