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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (28524)	3/13/1999 8:49:00 PM
From: notyet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Targretin side effects Let's just differentiate between reversible and irreversible side effects and take into account that diabetes is a chronic disease whereas cancer is not.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (28524)	3/13/1999 10:57:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

<<The rest of the pipeline is not worth that much in the near future, since most are licensed out to partners for singe digit royalities (most likely for the lower singe digits) and later stage products are years away from the market.>> I believe that your assumptions on royalty rates are way off base. LGND's first alliance was with PFE. The royalty rate on Droloxifene was determined by an out of court settlement (PFE didn't want to pay anything, because when LGND selected it, PFE did have rights to it). LGND's second choice under the PFE osteoporosis agreement was CP-366,156 and the royalty rate is 6% for all indications. I believe that LGND has indicated that all other royalty rates with major partners (GLX, ABT, AHP, SBH, LLY) was in double digits.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (28524)	3/15/1999 7:10:00 AM
From: Koerte Andreas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

I couldn't find anything about mechanism of action of Targretin in Breast Cancer. The only thing I found was that Targretin activates RXRs leading cells into apoptosis. Could anybody comment on advantages of the treatment or give references for reviews?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (28524)	3/15/1999 8:21:00 AM
From: Harold Engstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Well said, Ralf. Your opinion coincides with my own. Even at these prices, Ligand is still a considerable risk. It does seem unlikely that Ligand will break even as soon as next year. Many expectations have been raised about the companies performance that have not been met - in the clinic or financially - and this can only hurt the company's stock price further. While it would be nice to see Ligand succeed in the short term, this appears to be (as you say) a longer-term speculative play.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (28524)	3/15/1999 6:50:00 PM
From: RXGOLF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

Mr. Erz, I agree with your assessment and perils associated with LGNDs burn rate. I find your view of the probability of LGND being profitable in 1999 or 2000 an interesting contrast to some analyst views(my wish is that your view is a bit pessimistic) :-). I absolutely agree that the "maker/breaker" for LGND(at least for the share holders relative short term)is the breast cancer indication for Targretin. However, I would question how any kind of news could be leaking from the Targretin trials(good or bad)that would be influencing the current share price of LGND. Such news rarely"leaks"from a trial, although rumors of such "leaks" have been used by some in an effort to drive a share price in one direction or the other. Although I would lump all biotechs into the high risk category, I would not conclude as you did that LGND is a higher risk bet among biotechs. I would reserve that label for those companies that have a more narrow science base to work from, such as DEPO, or XOMA(which I do trade), as compared to LGND. Yes, LGND is speculative by any standards, but I won't concern myself with the possibility that bad news is leaking from the trials. I believe the reason that LGND is so weak at this time lies somewhere else. I too wonder what the investors of Immunex thought throughout the years of 1994, 1995, 1996, as their money sat "dead". I wonder what reasons they discussed, and just how obvious in August of 1997 it was to them that their price per share would appreciate by more than $50 in the next 30 days. I wonder how big their smile was today when Immunex closed at 176 11/16? Good Luck, Greg PS: If your English is this good, I also wonder how eloquent your native tongue is! :- ))