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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spreck who wrote (6592)	3/13/1999 8:19:00 PM
From: tang	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 41369

AOL's growth rate of membership may not be x2 every year but AOL's advertisement and e-commerce growth rate may be x3 or x4 for the next 3-5 years and that is what AOL is focusing on. AOL wants to have high % of its revenue from e-commerce and adv., low % are from the membership fee. AOL wants to lay the eyeball foundation as big as it can get, AOL wants the largest internet market shares in the world as soon as it can get through compuserve, icp, netcenter, and through alliance in ASIA, Europe, South America ... If I want to achieve the largest exposure through my internet ads $, who should I consider? AOL, of course, why? because it has the largest eyeball audience! That is why FirstUSA renewed its partnership with AOL lately for $500 millions. Do I worry AOL's membership growth rate? Not really, why? because AOL's management is a smart bunch, they just sent a second layer of CDs from compuserve lately to carpet my neighborhood, I haven't received anyone else's, I like that attitude very much, because AOL still acts like a small business, very alert! very aware of other's attack! The management acts like a bunch of young and hungry people, I like that! because only hungry people will act aggressively in seeking food! Only young people has never ending dream! AOL has the muscle, AOL has the eyeball counts, AOL has the money, but AOL still acts like a small business! The day AOL acts like MSFT, ATT, IBM, is the day I should bail out!

To: Spreck who wrote (6592)	3/13/1999 10:11:00 PM
From: Out_of_the_Trap	Respond to of 41369

streetadvisor.com

To: Spreck who wrote (6592)	3/14/1999 10:40:00 AM
From: RocketMan	Respond to of 41369

Spreck, you are right, that geometric progression can not be maintained forever. However, AOL's growth mirrors the growth of the internet over the last several years, doubling every year (approximately). I have heard that the saturation rate now is around 30%, that is, 30% of U.S households have internet capability. If so, this is encouraging because the adoption of a new technology tends to explode around this point, until the saturation rate gets to around 70%, at which point it flattens out. Therefore, I expect to see further doubling of the AOL customer base for another two or three years, at which point the market characteristics will probably change to quality of service rather than sheer numbers. And of course, broadband will be key to quality of service. Between DSL and cable, 2002 and 2003 will be critical years. Until then I believe AOL should perform very well. One other thought. You say in 94 AOL had 1M subs. Did you know that today AOL can host 1M dial-up users at once? That is an amazing number...