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To: Tom Hua who wrote (2239)	3/13/1999 10:59:00 PM
From: Brian K Crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

<< You [Doug] project a 60% sequential increase in revenue based on the increase of items on sale is totally misleading. In fact I [Tom]think revenue will increase no more than 15%. >> An unhedged forecast appears. We shall see who is closer. My money is on Doug. Brian

To: Tom Hua who wrote (2239)	3/14/1999 2:44:00 AM
From: Doug Fowler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

Tom: You say that my projection of a 60 percent sequential increase is "totally misleading". You also say that you "use reliable data". Well, here's how I fared against the analysts over the last two quarters reported by eBay: This is what I posted on October 26, 1998: exchange2000.com >>Analysts expectations of $10M in sales for this most recent quarter are WAY under. I expect more like $13M, maybe even $14M....<< On October 27, eBay $12.9M for the quarter. Here is what I predicted for the quarter reported in January, posted on January 26, 1999. exchange2000.com >>These analysts can't even predict auction growth for a three month period. (Witness: They are forecasting $15M in sales for this past quarter for eBay when the actual numbers will be at least $18M to $20M.) To think that they have ANY CLUE as to what is going to happen three years down the road is to believe that you can buy Manhattan for $20.<< Later that day, eBay posted revenues of $19.5M. I agree that increased auction counts don't guarantee a corresponding revenue increase. However, that is EXACTLY what they have done over the past two quarters. So, I'll go with what has worked. Also, it is important to note that eBay gets a fee for every auction, whether the auction is successful or not. In addition, eBay doubled the fees of its featured auctions halfway through this quarter, with only a slight volume decrease in those auctions. Let's see, your forecast is for at most 15 percent on top of $19.5M, or about $22.4M. My forecast is for $31.2M. We'll see whose forecast is closer, and if you want a side bet, I'll put my money where my mouth is. Best regards, Doug