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Strategies & Market Trends : The Round Table: A work by the squares of the SNDK thread. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Diamondhead who wrote (44)	3/14/1999 7:38:00 AM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 194

Kevin, REGARDING YOUR IFCI POST... I think we share a lot of the same investment sentiments. It is unusual in that I happen to own both AFCI and IFCI. My head is still sore from banging it on the wall for passing up IDTC. I would like to know how many investors on this thread who picked up IDTC recently have actually tried Net2Phone. What is the impression as to the practicality of Net2Phone? My investment strategies have also gravitated toward high tech because there is a lot of compressed growth. The treacherous part of these investments is rapidly advancing competitive technologies and product obsolescence. I can understand why day traders are attracted to the gyrations of the high tech sector. Megatrends are important to have in your favor. The digital camera market was the megatrend that I felt may propel SNDK. Now, all of a sudden, there is palm computing and mp3 along with other trends toward solid state memory. Thus, at least 3 megatrends are blowing into SNDK's sails (or sales). I think people are also attracted to the look and feel of PC (PCMCIA) style cards and appliances. I wish SNDK could become a household name like Iomega. That way we could also add a bit of consumer name brand recognition into the fray. That did alot for Iomega...above and beyond the amount of enthusiasm one could justify based strictly on fundamentals. The other megatrends I am interested in are telecom infrastructure and networking equipment. The internet is going to float alot of boats and all of a sudden there is a convergence of all forms of data transmission. If you all have time you should rent the movie "Cable Guy" with Jim Carey. I like the part at the beginning where he is sitting with Matthew Broderick on the lip of a giant satellite dish. His comments tell the whole story. I was at an exhibition which featured the recovery of artifacts from the Titanic this weekend. It was sponsored by a local cable company. I toured the display that they set up outside the exhibition hall. In the near future they will be offering a 500kbs internet access in addition to standard cable offerings and phone service. All three applications can be used simultaneously. I think the local Bell here in the Midwest is shaking with fear. They will need to build out the existing local phone network to be able to compete. I think there will be a frenzied effort to upgrade. The DSL (digital subscriber lines) will require alot of new hardware. I invested in AFCI (and recently PAIR) because they seem to stand to profit from this megatrend. They are both small caps with alot of bigger players being able to crush them with one misplaced step. I have taken positions because it seems that eventually their services will be needed. I also like smaller companies that will help provide the fiberoptic backbone which will eventually replace copper. That is the reason I own IFCI and ARGX. I am not well versed in semiconductors/computer science or the telecom industry, but I do believe that one can still have a basic conceptual understanding of a company's core business despite this handicap. I bought XYLN in December based on a bargain basement price (value), a clean balance sheet and impressive & sustained revenue growth. I have little insight into the advantages of their equipment. In fact, others warned that it was in competition with other established networking giants. Nonetheless, they had advanced technology developed in-house that was desirable. The company was acquired by Alcatel like Ascend and Bay Networks before them. Unfortunately AFCI and PAIR do not demonstrate the same revenue and earnings growth as XYLN. FOR THIS REASON I FEEL THAT THEY ARE MUCH RISKIER INVESTMENTS. AFCI was up 50% after the New Year and has since fallen back to my entry price. Both companies are small blips on the radar screen and I hope that they will be noticed rather than fade. Thanks for posting the information on IFCI. I hope others on the thread take an interest and post some helpful information or questions regarding its potential. Ausdauer

To: Diamondhead who wrote (44)	3/14/1999 9:52:00 AM
From: Ausdauer	Respond to of 194

Kevin, REGARDING YOUR IFCI POST... Media One is the cable operator I am referring to here in my area. I suspect that the full service cable, ISP and telephony package requires fiberoptics, but I am not sure. The current "set top box" configuration (actually it is a cable modem in a tower-like housing that sits on the floor or desktop) requires a phone connection, a coaxial cable connector and a data cable that connects to an ethernet card on your PC. The real success will come when the phone line is eliminated from the mix. Ausdauer

To: Diamondhead who wrote (44)	3/14/1999 4:05:00 PM
From: Bill Zeman	Respond to of 194

Kevin I have a rule of selling at any time that I think the company is no longer the future big money maker that I thought it was. As far as the winners like IDTC and SNDK go, I make a rule of selling 1/2 my shares when I have doubled my money. This way I am still in the stock I love, but only with pure profits. This way I have already taken some profits too. It is a pity to do so good in a position that you double your money and then end up making nothing or very little. It is also a pity to sell out of a stock that you still like and then watch it sky rocket to new levels. This method solves both problems, and gives you a clear cut, unemotional way to make your decisions: both of which are critical to investing so that you can sleep at night. Bill Zeman

To: Diamondhead who wrote (44)	3/14/1999 4:16:00 PM
From: Bill Zeman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 194

Kevin I used to own IFCI a couple of years or so ago. Way back when they were just buying Concepts over in TN. I bought in the high 1's, and sold out in the mid 2's. I should have held on, huh? The reason I hesitate to get back in is that IFCI is just a micro cap high tech construction company. It is not a business that I can see growing real fast, too labor intensive, and comes with all those unpredictable people problems and such. They are still just so small that they are only in Arizona and parts of the Southeast, right? They may get a few contracts in California now and then too, right? I guess the long and short of it is that I just don't see them as a lock to make lots and lots of money in the future. It doesn't seem worth it to invest in such a small, slowly growing company with all the exposure they have in their type of business. I generally like them, but will continue to be on the sidelines until I can see that clear lucrative future for them. I'd rather invest in something like QWST who actually owns the fiber and is already huge for a bandwidth play. Am I thinking wrong here? I do welcome any info that can convince me that they will make a ton of money though. Bill Zeman

To: Diamondhead who wrote (44)	3/15/1999 2:32:00 AM
From: phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 194

Kevin, I also have failed miserably in picking my sell points. I have watched big gains go away. SNDK, for example watched it ride from 12 to 39 to 10. WDC from 7 to 50 to 18. Sell when the fundamentals change. Peter Lynch, I think. Ken Fisher says to sell when the PSR is 3.0. I love your second principle, although I would take it one step further. Never DISCUSS your investments with your wife (or significant other). I will look up IFCI. You did not post any of the fundamentals. Why is $6 low? Roger