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Strategies & Market Trends : TA-Quotes Plus -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dick Brown who wrote (8986)	3/14/1999 9:43:00 AM
From: Nine_USA	Respond to of 11149

Dick, <<DELL split again so I think that is in error.>> I am showing the Future price for DELL (and other split stocks like AOL) in the detail line as it exists in the 1 year hence file. I show this price for my own proof testing as most stocks do not split and so, the future price tends to be correct as shown. Obviously, AOL, MSFT and others did split. When I see a lower future price than the original price and I see a %return of +90% or more, I know the stock split. I have checked this and countless other relationships, found the expected errors and fixed them. Because my meaningful error frequency has declined to a low level, I am happy to share my output here in order to expose any weaknesses. The important information I pick up from the future file, is the %returns for 10day 1m, 2m, 3m, 6m, 9m and 1yr holding periods. These are correct as far as I know. As it is, I am dealing with 2.5Gig of miscellaneous daily minifiles and %return files. This seems to give me a working way to deal with data as it existed for backtesting. <<But I think some of us, using price alone have seen stocks like AOL, WMT , CSCO , and DELL..not exactly undiscovered..long ago..>> I don't think I said anything about any stocks being undiscovered. I did say high priced (back in time) stocks like AOL or DELL, which split 2-1 twice in the last 12 months, can elude price based backtesting if done today as the 82 dollar price a year ago, will appear today as 20.5 after the 4-1 splitting. Also, while I see a positive bias using price alone, I don't see those returns being anything like the much higher ones I have been seeing using 50+ variables.