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Pastimes : WORLD WAR III -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: delong who wrote (356)	3/14/1999 8:46:00 PM
From: Neocon	Respond to of 765

The threats are always from those with the most stake in destabilizing the current system, which means the Arab/Muslim powers, a new pan- Slavism, or a resurgent China. Since China seems sincerely interested in improving the standard of living, and doesn't want to hurt trade, I think that they will keep their goals in Asia modest for the foreseeable future. Similarly, Serbia cannot carry forward a muscular challenge to the status quo, and Russia may be in such chaos that it would be lucky to consolidate political union with Ukraine and Belarus, much less making any more aggressive moves. The chief threat is from the Arab/Muslim powers. However, without Iraq to carry forward an aggressive policy, the Arabs haven't a chance of causing much more than mischief, and there is no revolutionary Sunni regime comparable to Iran to unite the Muslims adequately. Barring that, Iran is doomed to a limited influence. Thus, I think that we are in a good position to forestall WWIII.

To: delong who wrote (356)	3/14/1999 8:59:00 PM
From: Neocon	Respond to of 765

I think that we underestimate the national angle, though. France was a traditional rival of the British in the Middle East, and views the United States as Britain's successor. Russia was a sponsor of the Iraqis, and continuaes to feel a vested interest in the regime. The Chinese are afraid that the United States will intervene more strongly on behalf of Taiwan should they squeeze it further, and therefore takes a dim view of our interventions generally. If it were purely the oil, the threat to the Arabian Peninsula should make more of difference in their calculations.