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Gold/Mining/Energy : Swift Energy (SFY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wolfdog2 who wrote (724)	3/14/1999 1:16:00 PM
From: Mark	Respond to of 1602

PG - Wolfdog may be right, and I certainly don't want my current enthusiasm for SFY to get anyone carried away. I think SFY presently represents an excellent medium/long term opportunity. It may also represent an excellent short term one IF the current improvements in oil prices continue. I personally believe that it is increasingly likely that the worst of the weak pricing is now behind us, but I don't actually care if I am wrong, because I believe that it is only a question of time before we see $15 oil again - perhaps a week, perhaps a year. Given that I believe this is a probability, and given that SFY will likely continue to enjoy positive cash flow (unless things get VERY stupid), I feel that SFY will continue to grow whilst I am waiting. At $7, SFY offers me an excellent risk:reward because I am looking for the long term. However, we could still experience significant short-term volatility, and buying options at this time might just be adding an unnecessary level of risk. Of course, if I suggest caution, and you decide against buying, then this will be the ONE TIME that they'll make a pile of money ! My gut feeling is that there's a >50% chance that they will be nicely profitable. However, those odds weren't good enough for me to buy any, and I decided to just stick with the stock ! As ever, good luck with what you decide. Mark p.s. My various assertions that SFY has achieved long-term growth of 23% per annum PER SHARE is slightly misleading....... This is because it was based on the growth in the number of shares as being totally dilutative. However, this is not the case. Over the same 10 year period there were two 10% stock dividends which should have been anti-dilutative in my calculation. Taking these into account, the actual compound annual growth rate in reserves and output is increased to an ASTONISHING 25.5% per share of original investment. And here we are trading on a prospective PER of 9......... and pre any earnings upgrades........ Doh - there I go again!