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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tang who wrote (6619)3/14/1999 12:54:00 PM
From: George Martin  Respond to of 41369
 
Thanks to you, SPRECK, ROCKETMAN and others for interesting info, comments on LT growth of AOL. As LT investor (since 11/94 -- AOL is my second largest holding after CMGI), here some other opinions, points:

1. After the next two splits market cap goes from 80 -90 bill. range to 320 -- 350 range, obviously growth will have to slow from the explosive to the phenomenal to the steady blue chip blue chip superior range. I still see AOL maintaining PEG premiums -- with PEG multiples in the 2 to 3 range. These PEG's are afforded some of today's stocks like CSCO, MSFT, LU, EMC, PFE -- even GE, KO, G -- which have "graduated" to that level of acceptance. For this reason, I see AOL as a tremendous, 'money in the bank', LT holding -- the ONE stock to hold if you chose only one. With regard to this natural cycle of growth and maturation, described by Peter Lynch, I thought it was a BRILLIANT move by Steve Case to have AOL listing switched to NYSE away from NASDAQ. He knew clearly that this was the best strategy to deal with more conservative MM investment perceptions. It paid off big time and has put AOL in the # 1 position for pure internet investment.

2. Agree that major hurdle for LT growth, is dealing with opportunity/challenge of broadband access/competition.
As many have commented, believe there will be more than one winner there and AOL will clearly be one, through whatevever alternatives and alliances are developed, as per recent RBOC alliances and probably ongoing discussion with cable interests. (I think ATHM is also good LT investment, as well as other major cable interests. I'm keeping my T converted TCOMA stock as well.)

3. All the synergies and possibilities of the Netscape acquisition and the Sun alliance are yet to be realized and appreciated. Very glad and relieved Mark Andreesen apparently has found a LT role in the merger. IMO this is a major asset for AOL technology advancement and access options. AOL TV, AOL Everywhere.

4. As rate of subscriber growth begins to slow -- it hasn't yet but it will as SPRECK alluded to -- alternative revenue streams through e-commerce, advertising, etc. obviously will continue and expand. Look at recent upfront fees from First USA -- 500 million !!! Who would have predicted that 12 months ago ? Two and half years ago that would have been a laughable forecast. This was the end result of Steve Case's brilliant strategy with the bombing of America with his 3.5 cocktail coaster floppies ! Steve Harmon refers to AOL as the "eyeballs and wallets" leader. International expansion eventually will become more a factor for continued member growth, and I understand it, there are plans for a number of targeted markets to do this.

(BTW, about AOL's membership growth, I recall watching Case on CNN 3 years ago in an appearance at the National Press Club when this floppy saturation strategy was questioned. He stated then from a cost point of view AOL had determined that it was still "worth it" to spend up to 10 % of the anticipated lifetime revenues per subscriber in order to sign up new members. Definitely a man with a bold plan and the gumption to stick to it !!! Plus, of course, Case understood the real meaning and value and glue of 'community'/communication from the beginning and has done everything right for 'community' since then, including the ingenious ICQ and AIM.)

5. For continuation of "jack rabbit" internet growth at this time, CMGI is my favorite. Market cap around 7-8 billion. 1/10 the size of AOL and ? about 1/3 of EBAY. With CMGi, you just need to hold on to the handrail and take your dramamine, trust in the genius of DW, and of course, hold on to ALL of your AOL stock for the steadying effect of AOL's more predictable tremendous LT growth.

Good luck to all

George Martin



To: tang who wrote (6619)3/14/1999 2:42:00 PM
From: robert duke  Respond to of 41369
 
I just putting out some ideas. I don't think it will actually happen. Especially since it has happen the last two quarter. So I think we will see the stock split again in the fall quarter and then move to 100 again. MSFT has a cap of about 400 billion. I think it is possible for a company to have a market cap of about 750 billion. Which is about 2 x microsoft. With all the sales of a business and the ad buck and information exchanged I thnk we will see this in the future. This company will split every year for at least this year still and three years after that. What are your estimates for the june 1 and year end prices? What are your estimates on earnings?



To: tang who wrote (6619)3/14/1999 3:18:00 PM
From: Tradelite  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
 
Interesting article about AOL's clout:
__________________________
AOL Tries to Interface With Politics


By Dan Eggen and Craig Timberg
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, March 14, 1999; Page C1

America Online Inc. spent its first 14 years largely aloof from the muck of public policy, too busy becoming the world's largest Internet provider to spend much time on governmental debates.

But now the Dulles-based company, a colossus of the New Economy, is starting to play politics.

The firm has landed tax breaks for itself, won new legal controls on junk e-mail and has become active in groups aimed at swaying the legislative debate and influencing political campaigns. As the company puts down deeper roots in Virginia soil, AOL representatives say they want to have a stronger voice in local matters that affect the company's work force and on larger issues that have an impact on its bottom line.

One of the firm's closest friends in these and other battles is Virginia's tech-happy Gov. James S. Gilmore III (R), whose growing friendship with AOL Chairman Steve Case is built on a shared faith in the potential of the Internet – and a fear that new taxes could threaten it.

"They are the big gorilla that's just starting to wake up," said Del. Kenneth R. Plum (D-Fairfax), chairman of the Virginia Democratic Party. "Suddenly they're a player, and we have to pay attention to them."

The company's new embrace of politics was clearly evident this year at the Virginia General Assembly in Richmond, where AOL hired its own lobbyist for the first time. The company helped shepherd a slate of successful bills that revamped the state's laws on the Internet and earned AOL $18 million in tax breaks on its newest computer center, which was unveiled last week in Prince William County.

At the same time, Case and other top AOL executives have assumed leadership roles in numerous business and technology groups in Richmond and Northern Virginia. The company also is getting involved in broader issues, such as taxes and sprawl, affecting the lives of its employees and communities where it does business.

"While we are obviously in a fiercely competitive business, in the last year we've been able to lift our heads up a bit," Case said in a recent speech to local technology executives. He said that the company wants to "play a larger role" in local affairs and that its officials are increasingly involved in organizations that will "strengthen the community and attract new investment to the region."

It's a remarkable turn of events for a firm more accustomed to thinking globally than acting locally. One of AOL's chief executives, human resources head Mark Stavish, even made a successful bid to be chairman of the Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce; his term begins in 2001.

"AOL has made a conscious decision over the past two years to see themselves as a Virginia company," said Douglas Koelemay, lobbyist for the Northern Virginia Technology Council, a trade group of 1,100 companies including AOL. "It's almost as though their senior executives have decided to put down roots and consider themselves Virginians."

AOL is simultaneously raising its profile on Capitol Hill. The company announced last month that it is forming CapNet, a political action committee, with other Washington area technology firms. The PAC will funnel campaign contributions to federal candidates who support policies favoring Internet companies. It also has organized Open Net, a group that wants the Federal Communications Commission to permit outside companies – such as AOL – to provide high-speed Internet services through cable television systems.

These and other moves are part of a concerted effort by AOL executives to become publicly involved in local and national affairs, according to company officials and others.

"There is a maturation going on, not just with AOL, but with other companies across the spectrum as the new age of e-commerce and communications comes into being," said James W. Hazel, the veteran Richmond lobbyist who was hired by AOL this year.

"AOL is getting involved as a Virginia business and as a major Internet provider not just for themselves, but as a leader of an entire segment that is leading the charge in the new economy."

The company's sheer heft gives it a prominent seat at the table. Written off for dead by some critics just a few years ago after customer demand overwhelmed its capacity, AOL now has 16 million subscribers and, as of Friday , a dizzying stock market value of almost $90 billion. The company, which bought rival CompuServe Inc. last year, is in the process of acquiring Netscape.

The company's growth has not gone unnoticed in Richmond, where both political parties eye AOL as a potential gusher of political cash. The company has given little to candidates so far, commanding attention mainly though its key role in Virginia's booming economy, but AOL executives said they won't be shy about stepping up contributions in the future.

"AOL itself is neither Democrat nor Republican," said George Vradenburg III, a former Hollywood lobbyist recently hired as AOL's senior vice president for global and strategic policy. "The company will be supportive of anyone with good ideas on Internet policy."

Gilmore and Case met for the first time last June, when the governor traveled to the AOL headquarters in Loudoun County to invite Case to join his Commission on Information Technology, a committee that will help chart Internet policy for Virginia.

Case obliged, but not before noting that Gilmore had already caught his eye with two early moves in his administration: He had appointed the state's first Secretary of Technology and had bucked most of his colleagues at the National Governors Association conference by opposing Internet taxation.

Government officials across the country are eager to get a bite of the new online marketplace, which generally isn't subject to local sales taxes. AOL and other Internet players say taxes could strangle growth.

That perspective is embraced by Gilmore, who is slated to chair a congressional advisory committee on the topic, and many other Virginia officials. They argue that taxing the Internet could do more harm than good for Virginia, which benefits from new income taxes and other revenue pouring into state coffers thanks to the growth of AOL and other Web-related firms.

"We have to be very cautious about what kind of policies we have," Gilmore said last week. "We ought to open up our minds and think fresh about exactly what is going to be appropriate tax policy for the 21st Century in light of new innovations like the Internet."

Such technology-related topics are clearly the nexus of AOL's political message. But the company is also wading into broader matters of state policy.

Case and other officials, for example, have joined with many Northern Virginia politicians in arguing that the state needs to give localities a portion of sales or income taxes to help them keep up with rapid growth. The company also is lending support to a group, that opposes giving localities more power to limit development.

AOL's blossoming interest in such local issues is directly related to its growing presence in Northern Virginia. The company just announced last week that it was nearly doubling its capital investment in the region, and plans to hire as many as 1,800 new workers in Loudoun and Prince William counties.

That means more employees who send children to local schools, drive on local highways and take an intimate interest in local affairs.

"We believe we'll be a stronger company if the ecosystem in which we live is rich and strong and diverse, and if the quality of life is good as well," Vradenburg said. "The health and well-being of Virginia is very much of interest for us."

[here's a quote which appeared with the story:]

"AOL itself is neither Democrat nor Republican."

– George Vradenburg III,
AOL senior vice president

© Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company