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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (38388)	3/14/1999 1:59:00 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 94695

Earlie, Thanks for your straight up analysis.I see the box makers in the beginning of a huge transition. A transition which will pent up high-end buyers waiting fot the mirculous speed improvements that will result with the combination of Pentium III Direct Rambus DRAM and cable modems. I think as the cable infrastructure goes in (ATT/TCI) we will look at current state of the art computers like I look at my old 386 Yuk.The amazing part is I expect all this good stuff will come at the same price I pay now - but I'll have to upgrade my tower,buy a cable modem - probably get a second monitor(maybe flat panel if I'm feeling frisky) - in short the next wave of technology will make me spend the same and/or more AGAIN! Now for the old technology players that means cutthroat everything for their past product offerings. Intel has spent over a billion buying into memory makers to insure a sufficient supply of Direct Rambus DRAM memory.Estimates suggest that this type of memory will grow to 30% of all memory up from 5% this year.This type of memory requires longer test time and is creating a bottleneck in the backend testing operation.Somewhere in this switch/upgrade there are a few companies going to benefit.Ones I'm watching are Cohu (the test handler for all domestic tester manufacturers) and Schlumberger a most often thought of oil company with a complete line of Direct Rambus DRAM testers. I also am trying to learn more about cable modems but have not learned who's who in that arena.I'm sure whoever is there, will really see a huge demand as we all clamor for new breakthru speeds as we work/play on the internet. When the next generation of toys / tools that reinvent what the word fast means all the sub 1000 boxes will rush for the next upgrade too. I think demand will generally be robust especially with the good stuff. JMHO Thanks for your counterbalance thoughts that really aren't too far off from mine.I'm just trying to find the silver lining in that dark cloud.I wished I was smart enough to have thought that about dell these last 3 years. Darn I've been a watcher on that one. Bob