To: unclewest who wrote (17357 ) 3/14/1999 2:18:00 PM From: Allen champ Respond to of 93625
Wall St. Bulls Thrive on Adversity NEW YORK (AP) -- As the great bull market on Wall Street has made its run toward Dow 10,000, it has impressed many analysts with its staying power in the face of a rise in interest rates. Long-term rates in the bond market recently jumped to their highest levels since last summer, dealing prices of U.S. Treasury bonds one of the sharpest one-month setbacks they have suffered in the 1990s. Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped half a percentage point in four weeks to about 5.7 percent, a full point above where they stood in the fall. Many analysts speculated that a strong U.S. economy, and budding recoveries in many parts of Asia from the recent debt and currency woes there, might start to put sustained upward pressure on inflation and interest rates around the world. That, it's said, could force the Federal Reserve to lean toward a tighter credit policy, and perhaps encourage some of the international investors huddled together for safety in U.S. investments to begin taking their money elsewhere in search of bolder opportunities. But after pausing for a few weeks to consider such possibilities, stock-market investors have recently gone back to buying, pushing the 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average to new highs. ''I think the stock market by and large has done extremely well dealing with the roadblocks in its way this year,'' says Greg Smith, investment strategist at Prudential Securities Inc. ''That stocks haven't reacted more negatively to the rise in bond yields is somewhat surprising,'' observes Wright Investors' Service of Bridgeport, Conn., in its latest bulletin to clients. The so-called Asian contagion has hit hard at some areas of the U.S. economy, such as agriculture and other commodity-producing businesses. At the same time, however, consumers and many producers of finished goods and services appear to have benefited from the situation. Whatever fears persisted of an economy-wide slump in this country seem to have been dispelled this winter. Talk has lately shifted to the problems that might arise as worldwide demand and economic activity strengthens. ''The probabilities have shifted,'' says Byron Wien, portfolio strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. ''If the pace of the economy stays strong, it is possible, even likely, that the Federal Reserve will tighten later this year.'' Yet stock prices have lately forged ahead with renewed power. The way some optimists see it, the much-ballyhooed ''Goldilocks'' economy seems to have succeeded once again in maintaining the not-too-hot, not-too-cold pace that has kept the bull market all through the 1990s. ''We did not believe the depression and deflation case six months ago,'' observes Thomas Galvin, U.S. strategist at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corp., ''and we do not subscribe to a global synchronized recovery and reflation case today. ''In our opinion, reality is somewhere in between these emotional extremes, and better profits with continued low inflation are what valuations need more than anything else.'' Recent upward pressure on bond rates should ease, Galvin argues, and economic growth throttle down to a more sustainable pace. ''Inflation palpitations should moderate,'' he adds. Meanwhile, says Stephen Quickel, editor of the newsletter U.S. Investment Report, ''U.S. stocks remain in a bull phase that is nowhere close to ending. The economy is strong and soundly managed. American companies are leaner and more competitive than ever before. And technology marches on, providing continuing economy-wide productivity gains.'' From Sunday NY Times