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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: diana g who wrote (39891)	3/14/1999 12:53:00 PM
From: SargeK	Respond to of 95453

Damn! I don't know if being quoted by Diana is a sign of fame or infamy. Another question for 'time' to answer, I guess. >>GBG<< Hey gal, I didn't know if you were still reading my posts after the last arrow I threw in your direction. It appears 'time' really does heal all wounds! >g< SargeK

To: diana g who wrote (39891)	3/14/1999 1:13:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

diana: Re: Amoco capex. This statement again shows that oil prices must go up and STAY UP before oil companies will hike cspex. I can guarantee you he will not be singing that tune if crude stays in a $14-16 trading range for a few months.

To: diana g who wrote (39891)	3/14/1999 1:58:00 PM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Suboptimization of Cost Savings to the Detriment of Revenue Gains Diana: IMHO, you're missing the forest for the trees. <<If I were in his position I would be uncertain of the future price of oil but would take the position publicly that I expected prices to go/stay down. He will be negotiating with service companies and drillers. It would be against the interests of his company to do otherwise.>> By making such a statement, you assume that Fuller might be taking a public position on the oil price outlook in hopes that his comments will help him in future negotiations with service companies and drillers, which only affects the cost side of his company's P&L statement. OTOH, he has a much greater vested interest in seeing his company's top line revenue grow with an increasing price per barrel of oil produced. Integrated oil companies like Amoco have much greater upside leverage through revenue growth than they do through cost reduction. Case in point: Look at Amoco's profitability in late 1997 when both oil prices and rig/service costs were high versus just prior to the BP merger when oil prices and rig/service costs were low. Why do you think Fuller might be willing to suboptimize his company's best interests to the detriment of his own economic well-being? IMO, Fuller is probably just like most other executives. He probably has a rather healthy ego, thinks he knows where prices are headed, and he sometimes takes public positions in the present simply to be viewed in retrospect as correct down the road once 20-20 hindsight becomes more readily available. <vbg> Razor

To: diana g who wrote (39891)	3/14/1999 6:22:00 PM
From: diana g	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

<<<Analysts: Time Is Right for Oil Cut>>> (AP) biz.yahoo.com By TAREK AL-ISSAWI Associated Press Writer DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- The success of an agreement to cut oil production and raise prices depends on all countries doing their share -- something Gulf oil analysts said Sunday is likely given the costly effect quota-busting has had on prices. Gulf states have seen their revenues hit hard by the slide in oil prices, which until recently had been hovering near its lowest levels in 20 years -- about $10 per barrel. Major oil producers announced Friday a plan to cut production by more than 2 million barrels a day, which could lift prices to $15 per barrel by year's end ''if the producers remain committed to the agreement,'' according to a former Saudi oil minister. ''I hope oil producers have learned a lesson from the drop in oil prices,'' Ahmed Zaki Yamani told the Qatar News Agency. News of the planned cuts has pushed oil prices upward. On Friday, the price for April delivery of light, sweet crude rose 18 cents to close at $14.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after hitting an intraday high of $15.11 -- the highest since early October. In London, North Sea Brent Blend crude oil rose 42 cents to $12.60 per barrel at the International Petroleum Exchange, after hitting an intraday high of $13.19. Brent crude last settled above $13 per barrel in November. Abdul Aziz Dagastani, a Saudi economics expert, is among those analysts who are confident that the pain caused in part by some nations' quota violations will strengthen producers' will to comply. ''The low level of prices will be a great motivation for the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to commit themselves to the deal. They realize that commitment achieves their mutual interests,'' Dagastani said. According to an independent Saudi study, oil revenues of six Gulf nations -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain and Qatar -- fell from $90 billion in 1997 to $55 billion in 1998, a 39 percent drop. Optimism, however, often has followed production agreements, then faded quickly. In recent years, Iran and Venezuela have reportedly been the biggest OPEC quota-busters. Other OPEC members privately have accused Iran of overproducing an average of 300,000 barrels per day and Venezuela, 100,000 barrels per day. Iran has denied violating its quota, and the dispute over the baseline for Iran's oil production cuts was resolved last week, though at what level wasn't clear. Venezuela generally hasn't commented on reports that it is cheating, though the nation's new government has said it will respect its quota. Jassem al-Saadoun, an independent Kuwaiti economist, said the latest agreement would be ''worthless'' without compliance, but noted it had the ''blessing of very strong parties, including the United States.'' Washington fears low oil prices will produce political and social instability in the Gulf region, al-Saadoun told The Associated Press. Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheik Saud Nasser Al-Sabah said Saturday that the agreement calls for production cuts of 2.029 million barrels per day, including 140,000 barrels per day from Kuwait. A breakdown of the deal, which takes effect April 1 as the industry heads into the season when oil demand lessens, is to be announced at the March 23 OPEC meeting in Vienna. Analysts agree the key to its success is compliance with set quotas. ''The password is compliance,'' said Abdullah al-Dabbagh, a member of the financial and economic committee in the Saudi consultative council.