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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (39896)	3/14/1999 1:49:00 PM
From: Robert H.	Respond to of 95453

To cheat or not to cheat; that is Not the question. The question is what is the market perception of this new reality, and what are the new possibilities it creates. The market can not afford to short this new reality. Those who do will not be happy campers. The trend is up, and will stay up as long as the perception remains the same. I do not see the classic sell-the-news on the 23rd. If anything, there will be another run-up as the non-OPEC countries agree to throw another 75 to 150,000 bpd into the pot. To all the gloom and doomers on this board, lots of luck; your gona need it. Look for full compliance within OPEC when the May numbers come in.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (39896)	3/14/1999 3:06:00 PM
From: Razorbak	Respond to of 95453

Market Control "Fact" is Only a Myth George: I understand that you are bullish short-term, and you must, therefore, be inherently opposed to my relatively bearish position on current fundamentals, but please stop spreading myths on this board. <<When a small cut in output can send prices soaring while a small rise can send them plunging the incentives for cooperation are overwhelming. Especially considering the fact that a handful of producers control the bulk of the market. Very different from other commodities where supply is much less concentrated.>> FYI, OPEC alone, which only produces approximately 40% of the world's oil, consists of... count 'em... eleven countries: Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. Hardly a controlling position -- heck, 40% is not even a majority -- and hardly a handful of producers either. Furthermore, only 60% of non-OPEC production (i.e., approximately 36% of total worldwide production) is controlled by seven countries (USA, Russia, China, Norway, Mexico, UK, and Canada). IOW, eleven OPEC players control only 40% of the worldwide oil market, and 18 OPEC & non-OPEC players control only 76% of the market. IMO, the real facts suggest that your market control "fact" is only a myth. Razor