Yes; Razor the voice of reason may not be met with open arms...but -
Forgive them; they know not what they do....<VBG>.. Razor; this board seems to think you either have to be totally at one end of the spectrum, or the other - can't be in the middle and definitley - don't be reacting to changing events - even if you are simultaneously profiting because that not only confuses the bejabbers out of them - they can't quite follow that quickly...<VBG>. - not all - but many...
No, we aren't out of the woods - yes, we may have a heady ride ahead, but if you haven't taken any chips of the table - the dealer still has a few cards to play... a time to be very optimistic, but not blind to reality... Phase I was the euphoric expectations. Phase II will be the realization of the actual agreement, Phase III will be how OPEC conforms to the agreement and Phase IV will be how Oil prices react to OPEC's performance and if that translates into higher dayrates, Rig utilizations and Expenditures in the mfg & service arenas.
The Fat lady can be heard warming up behind the curtain; but she has definitely not sung her aria as yet ...
This week we saw the rapid upward move up in Oil prices and intital expectations and press anouncements of an OPEC agreement. The Oilpatch stocks rallied. The OSX moved from 47 to 56 on tuesday - where the conflicting news hit the wires; not a bad little move indeed.
When I mentioned that ''The Street is commenting that they have fully priced a 1.5 Million BOE cut into current prices'' - I was met with claims of being short, being a bear, twisting in the wind and having bailed out and missed the move...Unbelieveable; one minute I am an ''inbred'' cheerleading, blind Perma - Bull; but the first time I decide to put some cash in the drawer - then I'm a Bear...laughable. Well, you can't please everyone, so you had better please yourself... isn't that how the song goes ?
As many of us had - '' been here and done this'' with OPEC more than once before; if there EVER was a prudent point to take some profit off the table it was when conflicting news on what was, or wasn't agreed upon hit the wires and the tape turned simultaneously.
I took profits initially there on tuesday - getting a 9 point ride on the OSX. The conflicting news statements came from OPEC on everything from 300K to 2.5 Million boe in new cuts. The Street said 1.5 Million were priced into the move and anything less would lead to a selloff. New questions arose. But, once again taking profits on the Streets retracement on this conflicting news was ''wrong'' ? - well not in my book and not in my portfolio it sure wasn't.... When the conflicting news came out the OSX had moved 9 points which was 65% of the current move; and ''that'' was ''bailing'' out .... ?
Some sat on the sidelines, some jumped in and some who were in at the bottom took profits. - well what I also did, was to rotate into some small & mid cap E&P's that were lagging the initial move and they did pretty well - in many cases outpacing all OSX stocks. But, I missed the move - I bailed out ? Sorry; what I did do - was trade my plan. My plan is to catch the initial 1/2 to 2/3rds of a move - and I did. I will never risk a substantial gain on anOPEC meeting again. I caught OSX 47 - 56 for 9 points and the next move has been from OSX 56 - 61 here for 5 points; so who missed what move ? Actually go back and read the E&P plays I rotated into - they not only blew by the OSX index returns, but I got a double in AXAS, 30% in MARY, nice moves in MLRC, PGEI, FXEN and yes, RRC is still flat - but I am adding here continually - it is a double+, patiently waiting to happen. Also added to EVER at $16 15/16ths now $18 3/8ths and played HLX for a 25% move, re-entered FGI, GIFI, PDE after cashing in nice gains on the initial move. OMNI - is also flat at this time and I will add here on any retracement. So one man's ''bailing out - is anothers way to actually beat the Street, cashing in profits and rotating into better % gainers simultaneously. I'll take that kind of bearishness any day and all the way to the bank...
This chart shows the OSX's stair step climb and the many retracement opportunities for buying, or selling: We've had them before and we'll have them again:
quote.com
enter ''osx'' into the symbol area, click on ''60'' in the ''time'' area and hit ''enter'' on your keyboard for the chart for the month of March:
Later in the week more news has came out reflecting a consensus for substantial cuts and this news was finally confirmed through numerous sources. Here we had the Johnny Come Latelys & the Mo-Mo players join in - no problem with that; that is the straw that unquestionably stirs the drink. We can't go higher with out that money flowing in.
Now with more news this weekend (links below) we once again have the Street commenting on how much is priced in and questioning what OPEC has, or has not actually agreed to. While the numbers in principal appeared to be agreed upon; the actual details and the final agreement remain. More important than the agreement for investors; is the Streets reaction to it, which remains to be seen.
Links:
news.bbc.co.uk
bloomberg.com
<<Algerian, Libyan, and Qatar oil ministry officials said
that they had not yet decided on what amount their countries
would contribute to the new oil output reduction>>
So what was, and what will be the prudent course ? Was it smart to sit on the sidelines, was it smart to trade and take some profits on the way up, was is smart to wait and finally just jump on the Mo-Mo train here of late at its peak ?
Only time will tell; and there obviously is more than one way to skin a cat; but there has been only one strategy where one has a guaranteed profit here - and that has been to take some chips of the table on the way up. Remember, ''it aint yours untill you take it.''
We've had a retracement here & there and we will ineveitably have more. Taking profits here is not cashing out and missing the train. Taking profts and rotating into laggards of other sub-sectors such as E&P's , or integrated Oils has proven prudent. These Johnny Come Lately critics forgot that we've been here since the Train left the Station; we didn't just hop on here ... Funny how they preach from one side of their mouth - never leave a 10% profit on the table - but if we take a 30% profit and cash it in - then ''we missed the move, or bailed out '' What a hoot... the ugly Green Monster of Petty Jealously sure clouds reality...
Now posters like Razorbak who have ''real world'' credentials both in the Industry and in their ability to ''do the math'' get unfairly ''tagged'' with a bear, or gloom & doom label. The one thing that I am most critical of on this board; is that most people do not know the ''contenders from the pretenders''.... Razorbak isn't spreading ANY gloom & doom. There is a big difference when someone has some credibility and secondly, explains their position with logic and reason.
Once again; There are ''Bears'' and there are mere ''Cubs'' - knowing the difference is the key ... knowing when to listen is also a key ...
Irregardless of what does, or doesn't happen, or what agreement does, or doesn't get signed; or how the street reacts to OPEC, some of us have allready been paid - and in this game you had better pay yourself, because no one else will...
PS - concerning the Political Correctness Police -
...please use your self righteous & self annointed powers to enforce both sides of the Street. I didn't see anyone come running to my defense on numeous occassions - not that anyone needs to by the way ...<VBG>. If I am guilty of anything, it is of not taking the pompous buffoons here too seriously. Sometimes the truth hurts and sometimes if the shoe fits - or some cases the ''slipper'' - then you have to wear it...
Funny how one man's perceived rudeness is anothers freedom; well - ''when in Rome do as the Romans do'' is a great saying; but I also believe - when In Rome - don't throw Stones at the Romans; as those Romans may be the ones who fought and defended our right to free speech of which you so graciously embraced when you crossed these shores - so don't you dare hold up "My Flag'' and cloak your insults behind it - and cry foul when I respond ... Sorry; but, when in Rome - don't be throwing stones at the Romans - be a good and pleasant guest... We got our Freedom of Speech the old fashioned way - we fought for it - remember that the next time you want to wave that Flag of self righteous indignity. And what is wrong pointing out the incredible hypocrisy of some cultures, or countries when they try to pick and choose which principals of the Bill of Rights they want to wave on a particular day.
Funny how there is that rush to take the ''Oath'' - but ohhhh how fast our ''guests'' soon forget what they swore to uphold ...
MeThinks they of all - protest way to much.
PS - use your mouse wisely - if you don't like what I have to say - click on down the road...
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