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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EyeDrMike who wrote (7091)	3/14/1999 2:38:00 PM
From: William Epstein	Respond to of 7841

EyeDrMike; Yes, you can spot them a mile off. One of the classic characteristics of this kind of analyst/PR guy is a penchant for hyperbole. With the exception of the internet stocks, everyone knows that nothing turns out that good. (call options in SEG last Jan., excepted) I wonder what he's up to? He may end up being an excellent contrary indicator. We'll have to watch him. Now, here are my statistics. MACD is on the bottom of the fish bowl(lower than last Sept.) but has leveled off and has just begun to dish out, money flow is the same as it was on 9/1/98 but has just begun to turn up, momentum is at the bottom where it was 9/1/98 but has begun to turn up, rate of change is accelerating rapidly, 30 day stochastic has leveled off for about 2 weeks but is turning up a tiny bit, it has bottomed too. The interesting thing is that it mirrors the indicators for the market, in general. It hasn't done that in 2 years. The market has already turned up but as I've said before, SEG is a laggard stock. That is why I don't agree with Valeri. Any contrarian looking at these indicators would say SEG is very close to a sizable rally. Everything has leveled off (bottomed). The bottom of anything is the right time to be a contrarian and so is the top. That is what I mean by timing when I write to Valeri. In between, go with trend. "The trend is your friend". That is also why heirtag and I have spent so much time trying to determine the bottom. We are past it now but just barely. Remember, where you heard it first. PHOTOMAN

To: EyeDrMike who wrote (7091)	3/14/1999 3:20:00 PM
From: William Epstein	Respond to of 7841

EyeDrMike; I have 1 more statistic that answers a nagging question. Namely, why was the last pullback so long and deep? I checked a 3 year daily, chart and what I saw was that just before the spike, in Jan. to 44 1/2 the volume accumulation was the highest on the chart. The spike was a least, twice the next largest spike on the chart. Remember, this is a 3 yr. period. The specialist had to be shorting into that VA. He was loaded down with enormous amount of short interest by mid Jan. It was higher than when he shorted at 56 3/8 in Feb. 97. He had to get rid of it fast, 6 weeks. Now we have finished the 8th. week of the decline and dishing out. Anyone who sells now is a fool.(hyperbole?) PHOTOMAN