Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike from La. who wrote (39904)	3/14/1999 2:26:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Mike-Interesting note. My 2c is that the greed factor will ensure that a rising tide in stock prices will lift all 'boats'. It won't really matter which subsector sees earnings bounce back before the other subsectors. Greed will do its thing and cause the deeply depressed shares to rise fastest and farthest %wise, regardless of which subsector they are in since everyone will be more than willing to look over the valley so to speak... Under this scenario, the ones with the biggest remaining bang for the buck are FLC,PDE,VTS,GIFI,IO,PKD,HMAR/TMAR, PTEN and MIND...These are the ones the furthest away from their Oct/Nov peaks...Only AFTER all the boats have risen will people care about which subsector is first in the food line imo. At the moment, I own FLC and VTS among the above group and will wait for a dip to buy into some of the others....As I see it, one way or another, virtually all of the osx issues will at least challenge or take out their Oct/Nov peaks so why not simply choose the laggards? (KISS principle at work)-----This does NOT mean that I am bullish longer term on the OSX, just that I think the current rally has more to go--enough to get all up to their Fall/98 peaks.... I do not for a moment rule out new lows ultimately. The jury is still out on that issue.

To: Mike from La. who wrote (39904)	3/14/1999 3:10:00 PM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Mike: "My theory is, since I don't know how fast the recovery will be, to follow the earnings. I try to time to catch earnings upswings." While I am in general agreement with your strategy, there are market forces now present that were absent during the previous cycle. If earnings are to drive the upswing, current research now available on the Internet will be fully utilized during sector rotation. New investors, traders and the Momentum crowd will look closely at ratings (how the companies stack up against each other in their respective niches), recent earnings performance and rely heavily on analysts' evaluations for projected earnings growth. The New Money lacking in your perspective, experience and knowledge will by necessity rely on the analysts. Using UFAB, GIFI, and FGI as examples (I own all three; but, for different reasons). This is what the "New Money" will see: UFAB Research: biz.yahoo.com Vectorvest: vectorvest.com Buy Recommendation GIFI Research: biz.yahoo.com Vectorvest: Hold FGI Research: biz.yahoo.com Vectorvest: Buy Oil Field Machine & Equipment Research: biz.yahoo.com In this sub-sector, UFAB ranked #1 is forecast to make .36 this quarter, .40 next quarter (Jun/99) and $1.95 FY/00. GIFI is ranked # 7 and is forecast to earn .14 this quarter, .24 next quarter (Jun/99) and $1.10 FY/00. They are selling at roughly the same price and the 5 year earnings growth for UFAB is almost twice that of GIFI. While I believe the UFAB forecast is probably overly optimistic and the GIFI and FGI forecasts to be overly pessimistic..that is nevertheless what new investors will see on Zacks, IBES, First Call, Thompsons, U Name it. Since the whole sector is priced at bargain basement levels, it seems logical the deciding factors on what to buy would ride significantly on FY/00 growth over FY/99 and projected earnings growth of the five year business cycle. The three companies have little or no debt and all three have grown their companies during the worst depression in OS sector, ever. On percentage terms from historic bottoms to Fridays close, the three are already leading the pack, a trend I expect to continue. K