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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (6299)	3/14/1999 5:12:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78615

I like your "much fairer comment" about where DE will go in the future. Because it is the future that we've got to anticipate. Past readings of the chart to glean performance depend on where you start. You picked end of '86 to early '98 for a multi-X gain. This shows it's possible, maybe reasonable, to have or have had, a big gain with ag stocks. Fair enough. My point is that I've never been able to see these ag stocks as profitable investments. That's me. I say that the chart shows that from maybe '82 to '87, the stock was under 10; mostly it looks around 5-6 to me. Sure IF you could have picked the bottom, you might have had a shot to sell at 50% gain in there somewhere IF you picked the top. If someone did sell and move on, they missed the big run up that you mention starting in late '86. Was it predictable (the runnup)? Given competition, environment, out of favor industry, competing investments, etc. -- I think one had to be an industry intimate, or have steel parts for certain parts of one's body, or put oneself in a position to be indifferent to the vicissitudes of one's stock holding(s) -- to have held so long. Maybe, as previous poster John Stichnoth said, DE is a also a special situation - being the dominant player. My original comment mentions CSE and NH. These would be, IMO, and in my purview, even more difficult for someone to hold for many years. I think the ag stock prices are too high because I don't trust that there will be earnings for a long time; I know I couldn't hold on for 5 years for a profit; and I think I can find better investments now. That's my opinion, -g- wrong though it may be. And I'm sticking to it. For now anyway -g-. Paul.