To: Jack Rayfield who wrote (3490 ) 3/14/1999 4:05:00 PM From: Ward Nicholson Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8117
Jack: I am still interested in whether a buy signal based on your system would be triggered by a move through C$2.50 on say 100,000 shares. Well, I wouldn't really call it a system and I definitely wouldn't call it foolproof as some have been characterizing it. There are a couple of ways I'd look at PYT for a change in trend. The first would be to wait for a breakout on its downtrendline. Many of you claim that TA/charting doesn't work well on cases like PYT. I beg to differ. Get a 2-year chart of PYT and adjust the price scale to a logarithmic one. Go here for a site that allows logarithmic pricing...askresearch.com Now, imagine a downtrendline drawn from last March to now. Look at how nicely PYT trends. It is a breakout above this line that would perk my interest. Whether that equates to $2.50 or not will change depending on how long PYT adheres to this downtrend. For example, imagine PYT to trade down to $1.50 for the next few months. Eventually, a break-out will mean PYT breaking $2.00, etc. Another way to watch for a significant trend change is to use a moving average. On this same chart, plot a 50-day EMA and notice that it acts like a downtrendline. The idea here is to be long PYT only when it's trading above 50-day EMA that slopes upward. This isn't my favourite way to look at trends because moving averages do not take major support/resistance levels into account. For example, using this 50-day EMA outlook one would have become bullish on PYT in late November, 1998 precisely when it was running into major resistance at $3.00. As you can see, this is not hard science. But, I fervently disagree with the notion on this thread that stocks like PYT cannot be looked at effectively with a technical eye. WN