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To: Investor-ex! who wrote (30019)	3/14/1999 5:08:00 PM
From: Ahda	Respond to of 116764

Even within this myopia, his assertion that some commodities are not occasionally and successfully manipulated is both naive and unfounded. Apparently, ahhaha is completely ignorant (or feigns ignorance) of the political and now systemic effects of gold pricing. This is odd, as from my recollection, his past writings did not exhibit this particular vacancy. "The gold market has never been manipulated. No market can be manipulated. Only an amateur would think otherwise. They can be influenced briefly, but it is of no value to those trying to influence it. Commodity markets have been known to be cornered, but a corner by definition can't end up profitably to those trying to corner. Gould and Fisk tried to corner the gold bullion market in 1869. The exercise busted them just like Hunt's silver corner busted them 20 years ago. "

To: Investor-ex! who wrote (30019)	3/15/1999 4:22:00 AM
From: Alex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

DOW 10,000 IS A PARTY FOR BUBBLEHEADS By JOHN CRUDELE ------------------------------------------------------------------------ THE Dow will surpass 10,000 this week. Probably on Tuesday. No later than Wednesday. And therein lies the problem with this stock market bubble - equity prices are moving higher for illogical but predictable reasons. Reasons that are based more on the technical factors than because IBM is really worth nearly $182 a share or because some Internet newcomer is likely to be a viable business. This week is one of those so-called triple witching weeks - when stock index futures, individual stock options and index options all expire more or less simultaneously. And as I've noted in this column many times before, the stock market almost always rises on such weeks. Since I first spotted this trend a couple of years ago, the rise in stock prices has occurred earlier and earlier on these triple witching weeks. Lately the moves have come as early as Tuesday, although don't put it past the bubble makers to jump the gun and maybe even pass 10,000 today. I'll explain why stocks tend to rise when these options expire. If you don't understand this stuff, don't worry, few people do. Bill King, a veteran trader now with M. RamseyKing Securities in Burr Ridge, Ill., explains that individuals, mutual funds and everyone else don't want to incur tax liability just because their options and futures are expiring. So, King says, these lucky folks will buy new stock - sending the market higher - and deliver that stock to the holders of the "call" options they've sold instead of delivering stock they already own and bought at lower levels. Got it? Presto, no profit on the stock. And no capital gains tax. And because they - and thousands of others - are buying millions of shares in this way, the overall market tends to go higher, says King. Better for the bulls is the fact that hedge funds, mutual funds and index funds that own stock index futures contracts which are expiring have to buy the actual, underlying stocks to replace the contracts. The end result is a higher market - barring any major news event that could interfere. And despite the market's failure last week to pierce 10,000, this week Wall Street will probably be enjoying ticker tape, endless minutes on TV and all the other hype that goes with the Dow Jones industrial average conquering a major milestone. Do you notice that none of this discussion so far has anything to do with corporate profits, the level of interest rates or any of the other things that Wall Street traditionally cares about? The attempt on 10,000 only has to do with Wall Street's playing games - trading strategies, efforts to beat taxes and the like. Let me repeat, stock market bubbles are fun while they last. You can make a lot of money from Wall Street's antics. But you don't want to be around when some sharp object comes into contact with the market. Different people will argue where the market really should be, absent all this nonsense. You might even find a couple of bubbleheads who'd claim that the Dow belongs at 10,000. Others - Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and many prominent others - think that stock prices are too high. Much too high. Put me in that group. Where should stock prices really be? Right now the stock prices are at about 35 times the earnings per share of the Standard & Poor's index. Michael Belkin of Belkin Ltd., who puts out an economic/market forecast for big clients, says that corporate profits fell 5 percent in the fourth quarter - so it's difficult to argue that corporate profits will catch up to share prices. At 35 times earnings, the market's valuation is higher than it has ever been. Much, much higher. Since the beginning of record keeping, prices have averaged 14.4 times earnings. And if corporate profits continue to fall and stock prices continue to rise, this relationship will get further out of whack. Worse, earnings could continue to weaken. The strongest profits have been coming from technology companies, and this industry has already started warning about future profits. Don't bother taking out your calculator. From these numbers you can see that the stock market could drop by more than half and still be historically overvalued. Is this a new type of stock market that doesn't have to obey historical dictates? It certainly is different, with ordinary people able to pump up the bubble through Internet account trading and mutual funds acting as a sponge for all the money people can scrounge together. That's why there is a bubble. All past bubbles have ended badly. Maybe it'll be different this time; maybe not. nypostonline.com

To: Investor-ex! who wrote (30019)	3/15/1999 8:29:00 AM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116764

Not so much ahhaha's opinion - but I do have problems with the conspiracy business, and I think it will be hard to prove collusion - people could say that they are following the same or similar technical indicators - but the biggest problem I have with it is that if there is a very big short position it means a lot of people are vulnerable to a concerted attack by (other) hedge funds, and speculators, generally, on the bull side of the market. Why? - because there would be enormous profits to be made by forcing a short squeeze. With investment and speculation it is, ultimately, every man for himself, and the market has a way of correcting excesses. dd