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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (38403)	3/14/1999 7:09:00 PM
From: nicewatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill, Oh, I see. <G> Charts are funny things... people can look at the same chart and see totally different things. I'll stick to a fork until it doesn't hold... the great thing about the fork is that the market shows the pivots to use... you just have to use them. <G> I would be more than happy to draw down-forks, but the market has to tip its hand to me first. The longer term down-fork, which you pointed out, holding any further advance would be a good start to make the bearish case. Of course, the bull will eventually die, and of course, it could happen sooner than later. The most apt thing, imo, that could be said to an NT'er (i guess) is that a broken clock tells time twice a day. <G> I find it funny, that in the end, whatever downturn occurs will probably be exacerbated because there aren't enough bears/shorts out there. It seems most bears have gone broke in the last few years... which makes it all the sadder when the turn they had been betting on finally comes, and they don't have enough powder left to take their shot. With no heavy short positions in the market.... there's no primed buying force ready to create a floor in prices when things really do tank, imo. As always, it will be interesting to see how it plays out... talk to you later, take care Regards, Frank

To: William H Huebl who wrote (38403)	3/14/1999 8:20:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

INDEX UPDATE =================================== It is obvious that less and less stocks are participating in the rallys, and the following chart confirms that: decisionpoint.com We hear alot of bullish talk that we should buy, but based on that chart it is getting harder and harder to pick the right stock to go up during a rally. Subjectively, it appears that it is easier to pick a stock to short during a pullback than to pick a stock to go long during a rally. We hear over and over that it is a stock pickers market, and I would have to add that it is a stock pickers for the upside, but for the downside it is less of a pickers market since there are more and more stocks going down. Of course we all know that the DOW is about to surpass 10,000, but it will probably do so on the back of less than 10 stocks - BIG DEAL. Last WED when the DOW was up 80 points it was on the back of 5 stocks, and on THUR when the DOW was up 124 points, 8 DOW stocks accounted for about 100 of those points. For those who are trading on the long side, it would probably be better to trade INDEX OPTIONs or FUTURES, than the actual stocks. The reverse holds true for those trading the DOWNSIDE and that is to short stocks rather than INDEX OPTIONS/FUTUREs. Hey, I dont think it matters when the DOW TOPs, just do homework on a stock to short, since it will probably top out before the DOW tops out, since there will probably only be 5-10 stocks holding the market up. gggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg Just dont pick one of those 5-10 stocks. Last week I was watching 5 stocks to short and 2 of them have already significantly turned to the downside while the market is heading up. Hey they are going down too fast. gggggggggggggggggggggggg Seeya