Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Bankruptcy Predictor Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Razorbak who wrote (1)	3/15/1999 1:04:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 477

People call it the Z-Ratio. I remember reading that its most effective 3 statments prior to bankruptcy, however the number of statements is irrelevent because the highest reading may not be the statement immediately prior to the bankruptcy, leaving a long period of second-guessing as to when the company would throw in the towel. This equation would be a jewel if you could find a company that hasn't been sold down to garbarge status yet and shows bankruptcy potential. I remember trying this out on a bunch of companies a couple years back and the only ones that tested positive were penny stocks with no receivables or revenues.

To: Razorbak who wrote (1)	5/23/1999 4:33:00 PM
From: Razorbak	Respond to of 477

Abacan Resources Corp. (NASDAQ:ABACF), Rev. 1 ------------------------------------------------------- Analysis: Altman Bankruptcy Predictor Company Name: Abacan Resources Corp. Ticker Symbol: NASDAQ:ABACF Date of Analysis: 5/23/99 Conducted by: Samuel M. Williams Vice President Turnaround & Crisis Management, Inc. Two Mid America Plaza, Suite 714 Oakbrook Terrace, IL 60181 Tel: 630-990-9718 Fax: 630-990-9693 E-mail: sam@turnrnd.com turnrnd.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Financial Summary, US$ Millions (1) 12/31/96A 12/31/97A 12/31/98A 03/31/99Q ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Working Capital, WC (3.16) (81.01) (42.40) (43.76) Retained Earnings, RE (2.03) (239.18) (226.68) (228.03) Earnings B4 Interest & Taxes, EBIT (1.30) (24.84) (13.85) (5.40) Market Value of Equity, MVE 950.80 176.10 38.89 19.44 Book Value of Tot. Liab., BVTL 82.29 123.81 45.74 46.28 Total Sales, TS 1.30 53.53 12.45 0.00 Total Assets, TA 335.84 159.38 95.81 95.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Altman's Financial Ratios 12/31/96A 12/31/97A 12/31/98A 03/31/99Q ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X1 = WC/TA (0.01) (0.51) (0.44) (0.46) X2 = RE/TA (0.01) (1.50) (2.37) (2.40) X3 = EBIT/TA (0.00) (0.16) (0.14) (0.06) X4 = MVE/BVTL 11.55 1.42 0.85 0.42 X5 = TS/TA 0.00 0.34 0.13 0.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bankruptcy Predictor Index, Z (2) 6.90 (2.04) (3.68) (3.85) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Company Health Assessment (3,4,5) Strong Near Near Near Death Death Death ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Footnotes: ---------- 1. Data obtained from the 1996 Annual Report on SEDAR, and the 1998 10KSB and 1Q99 10QSB, both on EDGAR. MVE was valued at US$8.69/share on 12/31/96, US$1.56/share on 12/31/97, US$0.34/share on 12/31/98, & US$0.17/share on 03/31/99. EBIT and TS are annual figures from the annual reports, and quarterly figures from the 10QSB multiplied times four for an annualized basis. 2. Bankruptcy Predictor Index: Z = (1.2X1)+(1.4X2)+(3.3X3)+(0.6X4)+(1.0*X5) 3. Company Health Assessment: Z > 3.0 = Strong 1.8 < Z < 3.0 = In Danger Z < 1.8 = Near Death 4. The Altman Bankruptcy Predictor is widely used in the turnaround industry to assess and predict a company's short-term survival prospects. The model is named after the renowned Edward I. Altman, Max L. Heine Professor of Finance at New York University's Stern School of Business, who published the initial research back in 1968. According to one scholarly journal, Altman's Bankruptcy Predictor has proven consistently accurate over the period of time since its development. The original samples in Altman's research displayed accuracy of 95 percent based on data from approximately one year prior to failure. The accuracy dropped to 72 percent based on two-year data. Subsequent tests on firms that have gone bankrupt since 1968 have shown an accuracy level of 82 to 85 percent. 5. CAUTION!!! This analysis should only be used as an analytical tool. While it can greatly assist an investor or stakeholder in identifying weak companies for further investigation, it should not be used to the exclusion of other types of experienced and informed personal evaluation techniques. Also, please remember that, when using the Bankruptcy Predictor Model, the recent trend is the most important indicator of future success or failure since companies' fortunes rarely turn on a dime.

To: Razorbak who wrote (1)	2/25/2000 9:51:00 PM
From: Razorbak	Respond to of 477

ABACF - "Abacan Resource Corporation Update Of Corporate Affairs" Friday February 25, 11:02 am Eastern Time Company Press Release HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 25, 2000-- Abacan Resource(OTC BB:ABACF - news; TSE:ABC. - news) Abacan Resource Corporation (TSE:ABC - news; OTC BB:ABACF - news) wishes to provide an update of its corporate affairs. To date, the Corporation has been unable to secure partners for either of its Benin Republic or Nigerian oil and gas properties. The Corporation has been unable to raise additional operating funds and has also been advised that its major secured creditor is not prepared to further assist the Corporation by injecting additional operating funds or through the restructuring of the outstanding principal balance of its secured loan. As a consequence, without a material change in the current position of the Corporation's major secured creditor and without a significant infusion of capital, the Board of Directors anticipates that the Corporation will proceed with a voluntary assignment into bankruptcy pursuant to the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (Canada) in the very near term. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contact: Abacan Resource Corporation Corporation, 713/479-9770 biz.yahoo.com

To: Razorbak who wrote (1)	3/3/2000 10:10:00 PM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 477

ABACF - "Abacan Makes Assignment into Bankruptcy" Friday March 3, 6:06 pm Eastern Time Company Press Release Abacan Makes Assignment into Bankruptcy CALGARY, Alberta--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 3, 2000-- ABACAN(TSE:ABC. - news; OTC Bulletin Board:ABACF - news) Abacan Resource Corporation (TSE:ABC - news; OTC BB:ABACF) announces that it has today made a voluntary assignment for the general benefit of creditors pursuant to the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (Canada). All of the officers and directors of the Corporation have resigned effective March 2, 2000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contact: KPMG Brian Trypka, 403/691-8310