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Technology Stocks : BLUEFLY.COM(BFLY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Karpel who wrote (363)	3/15/1999 12:36:00 AM
From: Richard Karpel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 487

Q1 Revenue projection: I just visited the Yahoo! BFLY board and noticed that they're counting order numbers -- they appear to be issued sequentially -- in order to gauge BFLY's sales activity. On March 11, RetireAt29 wrote: <<<<These are the order numbers I have seen listed on this board. 1/3 108148 1/25 109844 2/17 111569 3/1 112621 3/3 112877 3/4 113114 3/5 113255 3/9 113700 >>>> I just ordered a shirt on Friday night, and my confirmation number was 113867, which would make it the 5,719 order since Jan. 3 (that's 113867 minus 108148 = 5,719). That's about 84 orders per day. When you add the first two days in January and the last 18 days in March, you get 7,392 total orders in Q1. At an average order of $70, that's $517, 440 before returns. (Anyone know the average return rate in the direct market apparel business?) So we're probably looking at somewhere between $400,000-500,000 in Q1 revenue. That's pretty substantial sequential growth from Q4's $300,000, and should be received postively on Wall Street.