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To: secrus2 who wrote (7100)	3/15/1999 8:56:00 AM
From: William Epstein	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7841

Valeri Evdokimov; I looked at the 5 yr. charts for the DOW, NASDAQ, and S & P 500. It depends on whether you see the water glass as half full or half empty. What I see is that up and down cycles are getting shorter within long cycles. For instance looking at the $SPX and $COMP I see several short cycles within the last 12 months but the longer cycle, of which they are part, may be the longest bull on the chart if the market continues upward from its present level. About 6 months old now. Previous long cycles were about 5 months. If it goes down then the bullish cycle is finished. Right now they look poised for a breakout from their trading channel. A new trading channel would have to be established. However, if they go down then there will be no breakout and they would probably go to the bottom of the channel. Since they are at the top of the channel this is a critical moment for investors. The S & P and NASDAQ must breakout to new highs if the bull market is to continue in the first half of this year. These indexes have leveled off for the last few months. Now they must go up or down not sideways. For that I have no answers other than the statistics I quoted last week as a guide. But to paraphrase you, there is no catalyst, at the moment to really give it direction. Do you play chess? PHOTOMAN