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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Machaon who wrote (28533)	3/16/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: Cheryl Galt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

>> It's interesting re-reading medsunman's report from the H&Q conference in January (Posts #27371 and #27375), where he reported that Robinson had said that the Lilly/Ligand diabetes program would probably not be taking Targretin forward. << Yes, such first-hand accounts from reliable witnesses are INVALUABLE, and help us to make or time our investment decisions. Peter Singleton and Vector I, Tuck and Dr David Hachey are others whose posts i collect. Peter Singleton's report from the last annual meeting was confirmed by Medsunman's H&Q report. Tuck was the first to give a strong alert about the triglyceride issue. The posts begin 3/26/98 and straggle into April. (I missed an earlier series.) Look at 17918, 18429,33, 18435 (Hachey), 18443, 18458 (Biotech Jim), 18504(Hachey). I wish the thread had pursued this discussion. Stock price predictions and CNBC comments all but drowned these significant posts. --------- I would like to see a full discussion of the 8/98 abstract recently posted by NotYet, ncbi.nlm.nih.gov. --- "Retinoids increase human apo C-III expression at the transcriptional level via the retinoid X receptor. Contribute to the hypertriglyceridemic action of retinoids." --- Does this relate to RXRs in general?? Is it GOOD news for RARs, such as LGD 1550? (I'm VERY curious about LGD 1550, which finished PhI over a year ago.) ------------------------------------------------- Because of Peter and Tuck and Medsunman's reports, no one here was blindsided by the Lilly decision to not take Targretin forward in diabetes. However, i DID EXPECT an announcement of a milestone for Lilly taking LGD1268 or LGD1324 forward into Phase I. Based on everything we knew, my expectations matched Henry's (Post 27476): "The diabetes program, because of the triglyceride levels (also discussed MANY times here before), would skip the first generation rexinoid (Targretin), and go directly to second generation (LGD1268 or LGD1324)." Based on everything Ligand let us know, this was an entirely reasonable expectation. I believe negative SURPRISE over Lilly's rejection of 1268 and 1324 for diabetes explains much of the current low price . I wish Ligand had prepared investors with a heads up. IMO, a heads up would have increased Ligand's credibility and investor confidence. At this point, many investors are wondering 'What else is Ligand not telling us.' I sure am. -------------- Perhaps there was a CLUE in Medsunman's report: "Both he and Andres Negro-Vilar then explained that LGND has an "embarassment of riches" in this area, because there is more than one second (or third) generation compound which looks as if it might work very well in diabetes without the side effects." Why mention "third generation" when you are about to enter the clinic with a second generation drug? ----------------- After the press release, this thread confidently speculated that Lilly would pick a 3rd gen drug by year end, with a resulting milestone. This would delay the milestone by only 9 months. (Of course it sets back a marketable drug by over 2 years. Though none of us has ever mentioned that, likely the Street has noticed.) But we were wrong to assume a milestone by year-end. Thanks to JOEBTI in Post 28500, we know that Ligand expects that decision to be made in mid 2000. Thanks, Joe, for calling the source. This info is not "miscellany." -------------- Though the triglyceride issue has pushed WAY back Lilly's chance of getting one of Ligand's drugs to market for diabetes, it likely has little affect on the chances of Targretin for ABC. Here, good anti-tumor activity in late-stage patients -- in even one arm of the 3-arm trial -- will provide a winner, imo. ---- Hoping for substantive information and discussion, Cheryl