To: freeus who wrote (109574 ) 3/15/1999 4:51:00 PM From: Lancer Respond to of 176387
TO ALL:maybe important trading-ideas.com March 14, 1999 Everen Securities issued a bullish report on Intel saying that they do not believe Intel would issue negative earnings surprise. Based on their discussion with several large PC distributors and manufacturers, they believe that PC demand is healthy both at the retail and business areas. There was a brief period of lull in February, which they attribute to product transition from Pentium II to Pentium III. Generally, customers tend to wait before a new product introduction, which was why sales slumped slightly in February, however, Everen believes that demand for its Pentium III is strong, which should lead to strong earnings growth in the current quarter and beyond. Everen said that over 30% of all Gateway's PC shipments are Pentium III. During their discussion with several large computer OEM, they found that most of the uncertainty in the PC sector was due to a shift in market share among large PC distributors and on due to lower PC demand. In fact, International Data Corp. (IDC) issued a report last week in which they said that PC unit growth could rise by 15% during 1999, which is good for Intel since the company supplies almost 85%-90% of microprocessors to PC market. Everen argues that problem at Ingram Micro and Advanced Devices are due to internal execution issues and not due to a deceleration of demand. Everen expects Intel to earn $1.09 for Q199 and $4.60 in calendar 1999 and $5.50 in 2000. Based on their 1999 earnings estimate of $4.60, shares are currently trading at 25.6 times. They feel that Intel deserves a market multiple equal to Cisco and Microsoft, as Intel is a dominant player in its industry much like Cisco and Microsoft are in their respective industries. Everen believes that shares of Intel could trade as high as $182 within 12-months. I agree:relative slowdown in last quarter has been caused mostly by the waiting of the availability of PIII. Just my opinion. Regards and best wishes to all - Luciano M. Trentadue