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To: ldo79 who wrote (30086)	3/15/1999 9:07:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

Not sure about tomorrow..Trend is of course down...But again sharp reversal is likely around $282-285 levels..plus yen behavior should be a determining factor of dollar direction in weeks to come.. Japan's EPA Optimistic on Economy Monday, 15 March 1999 T O K Y O (AP) THOUGH STILL mired in a severe slump, Japan's economy is close to bottoming out - largely as a result of government support measures, the Economic Planning Agency said Tuesday. In its March report on the economy, the EPA described overall conditions as "extremely severe," but said the economy's "downward movement continues to slow to a halt." "This is a big change," said Takashi Omori, director of the national economic division at the agency's research bureau. The official optimism comes just days after the EPA announced Japan's economy shrank for an unprecedented fifth straight quarter in the last three months of 1998, confirming the country remains in its worst recession in 50 years. Despite the severity of the gross domestic product data, the optimism of Tuesday's report was in line with growing notions among many officials and investors that the worst of Japan's economic malaise may be over. The EPA was joined Tuesday by the Bank of Japan, which also slightly upgraded its assessment of the Japanese economy in a monthly report, saying it "appears to have stopped deteriorating." The BOJ, however, said consumer sentiment remained cautious and corporate capital expenditures are expected to continue falling in the near term. "It is still difficult to expect an immediate, self-sustained recovery in private demand," the central bank said. One sign has been a recent jump in stock prices. With its close Monday at 15,779.60, the benchmark Nikkei stock index has risen by about 1,600 points in little more than a week, partly due to budding optimism. In addition to rising public works outlays resulting from fiscal stimulus packages, which the EPA said have made public investment "solid," government efforts to lower both long- and short-term interest rates have been successful, the report said. Nonetheless, the EPA's report Tuesday was cautious, generally balancing every optimistic sign with a dose of pessimism. "Although some areas are bottoming out, we must watch cautiously before we can say that the economic situation will get better from now," Omori said. The EPA said personal consumption has almost stopped declining but remains weak due to "sluggish" income. Because many companies have recently cut back on overtime hours and reduced bonus payments, disposable income has fallen in recent months. In addition to a weak wage outlook, the employment situation remains severe, the EPA said. Despite signs that the recent decline in the number of employed workers may be leveling off, the jobless rate remains at a record-high 4.4 percent. The EPA also noted that corporate bankruptcies are sharply down, reflecting the effects of a government-backed loan guarantee system for small- and medium-sized companies. Corporate bankruptcies fell to 955 in February, down 40 percent from a year earlier and 5 percent lower from January. It was the first time in more than six years that the number fell below 1,000, according to private credit research agency Teikoku Databank Ltd.