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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Guy Gordon who wrote (21320)	3/16/1999 1:22:00 AM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Am I the only one concerned over rapidly declining DRAM pricing? I hope that it is mainly due to Micron dumping excess inventory which had build up due to thier capacity restrain for testing. Considering that the big 3 Korean DRAM makers have already increased production, coupled with increase popularity of $800 PC's which use only 32 or 64 Meg of RAM could spell trouble for MU and perhaps equipment makers as well. It has been about 18 months since CYMI peaked at about $50, IMHO 18 months is not too short for a full cycle. If I am not mistaken the previous two cycles in stock value of equipment companies have been about 20 to 24 months. Keep in mind that capacity/spending will continue to increase for the next two quarter and that has been built into the stock price. From what I have been able to gather DRAM supply/capacity is growing at a faster rate than demand. Also spending for capacity increase in the high volume of x86 market may decrease as AMD's spending on their Dresden fab should tail off and there is no sign of big new fabs from Intel as signs of PC weakness continues. Will the next big wave of spending wait for another 2 years and 300 mm wafers? Is it time to seat on the side and wait for bottom to develope? Any comment on the fundamental analysis of the semiconductor equipment industry is greatly appreciated. Mani