To: Michael who wrote (1658 ) 3/16/1999 11:58:00 AM From: James Yu Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3187
Don't be too naive to believe all the analysts are honest!!! All of them have their agendum. Here is a scenario of Part VI. October 27, 1997 Who Really Moves the Market, Part 6 -BYLN- JOSEPH NOCERA REPORTER ASSOCIATE AMY KOVER Joseph Nocera Reporter Associate: Amy Kover TOM KURLAK; DREW PECK; MARK EDELSTONE; INTEL -NOTE- SEE ALSO PAGE 102 OF SAME ISSUE The Buy Side Gets an Earful It's Aug. 22, 10 A.M. Time for the dueling conference calls between Edelstone and Kurlak. Anticipation runs high. All over Wall Street, buy-side institutions have people positioned at two different phones--one connected to Edelstone and the other to Kurlak. Edelstone's case for his upgrade of (4/10/1998) Intel is straightforward. Intel, he believes, is going to have a terrific second half of the year. Demand for computers, which is very strong, will drive Intel's business. And he also believes that all the signs suggest that PC growth will continue well into 1998. It is a typical Edelstone interaction with the buy side--calm, low-key, understandable: solid. When a caller asks him to comment on the stock's tumble that morning, Edelstone wryly suggests that it is a good buying opportunity. On the other line, Kurlak is outlining the reasoning behind his downgrade. To the surprise of many of those listening in, Kurlak actually agrees that the third and fourth quarters are going to be good. It is the first half of 1998 he is worried about: Using his tried-and-true technique, he foresees an inventory correction kicking in. He also says he expects a slowdown in overall capital spending, which will hurt semiconductor sales. 'He's got nothing' one fund manager says in amazement. Because the downgrade comes only two weeks after Kurlak reiterated his buy, many buy-siders had assumed the Merrill Lynch analyst had some new information to cause him to change his mind so abruptly. Plainly, he doesn't. Indeed, to much of the buy side, Kurlak's reasoning has a grasping-at-straws quality; it seems as though he has decided to downgrade the stock first and only afterward go fishing for reasons to justify the move--something Kurlak heatedly denies. By the end of the day, Intel recovers most of its early losses, suggesting, perhaps, that the Street is discounting Kurlak's downgrade. But over the course of the next month, the stock, which had run from $70 to $100 between early July and late August, remains stalled at just under $100 a share. In late September, during a conference call, Kurlak says that Intel might miss his third-quarter estimate. The stock immediately drops $3 a share. "I just raised my third-quarter numbers for Intel by a dime,' says Rob Chaplinsky of Hambrecht & Quist, who has been in the game only since last July. 'That's a big deal! Everybody is looking at my numbers. I'm usually conservative because I want Intel to beat consensus. The stock is up two bucks.' Chaplinsky, just 30 years old, came to H&Q directly from Intel's investor rela-tions department. He has quickly figured out how the game is played--and he's only too happy to play along. Banking deals? He loves them. ("My boss told me, 'We need you to be credible on Intel so you can get us banking deals.'" ) Moving stocks? It's a thrill. ('Trident is up a buck. I pumped it up this morning.') Playing the earnings game? What could be more fun? Eventually the discussion moves to Kurlak. 'Tom's a great guy,' Chaplinsky says. 'He's got a great franchise.' 'I'd like to be in that position someday.' Best wishes James