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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jenna who wrote (27671)	3/16/1999 12:08:00 AM
From: Mike S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 120523

Kensey just changed his portfolio and recommended recommended _INDU (Short) 'kensey' said: I don't think the dow has enough breadth to take it far over 10000 at this time. The average is close enough to that historical market to probably hit it, but I don't think it is going to ignite significant buying or much in the way of euphoria. The DOW is being driven up on the strength of financials, oils and cyclicals and basic materials. The oils have about run the course of a quick run-up so I don't see more in the ways of gains there. The financials are probably in a position to move higher. But is the sum total of these sectors strong enough to take a leadership position in the market now that technology is essentially in range bound trade? The rally of the past 2 weeks has been driven more by speculative momentum that fundamentals. In fact, the fundamentals are deteriorating in the form of higher rates. Are rates in a position to come down right here? The jury is out but it hasn't happened yet. Narrow breadth is the deal here. Expect selling as the dow hits 10000 if it in fact does. Enthusiasm will wane upon potential of that marker. The market is still in a relatively narrow trading range. Expecting range bound action to continue. Technology stocks MUST move higher as the market is not going to be able to make much forward progress without their participation. Unfortunately, technology is NOT in a position to see an expansion in valuations. Valuations are high and there have been enough earnings disappointments to prevent higher valuations. Technology is priced pretty high. Is there is a case for higher valuations. DELL had an revenue shortfall recently. Yet still trades at a PE of about 80. Is that PE going to expand? No. Trading opportunity has been confined of late to the shooting gallery taking place in the Internet sector. Funny how the pundits predicted that the bubble popping in the Internet sector was going to take down the entire market. What has in fact happened is that Internet sector alone is largely responsible for holding up the broad market. The fact that Internet is the leadership group is another facet in the case for continued range-bound and volatile broad market action. Simply due to the fact that the Internet sector is very volatile. Any comments on this recommendation should be make on the boards. Actually, this isn't a recommendation at all. This is more dinner conversation. All recommendations issued by myself should be regarded as dinner conversation. In fact, recommend should be renamed dinner conversation as a section. These are nothing more, nothing less. Anyone that trades solely on the basis of any recommendation made by anyone on the site is taking this out of context. Right now I am trading in the direction of the prevailing trend. Which is up. I am not turning maintaining a bearish stance on the market. But I am putting on a hedge by shorting big cap technology names on strength. Given the fact that I think range bound broad market action is the most likely result, I'm balancing on both the long side and the short side. Agree? Disagree? Follow the url at the bottom of this page. The boards for the Nasdaq Comp and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have been very active of late concerning market direction, which sectors to be in. In fact, posts on the Nasdaq Comp board were littered with calls to move into the energy sector before it happened. kensey

To: Jenna who wrote (27671)	3/16/1999 12:30:00 AM
From: WHITEAGLE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 120523

Hehe those are the facts. I rarely have the balls to hold out for the 1000%. Yes some are dogs. No I am not super wealthy. No I don't really care if anyone else gets on the list. I am a researcher. Thats what I do. I have found that I am good at research in a variety of fields. Stocks are what I have been spending my "extra" time on for the last two years. The fact is ... I am a true contrarian investor and do not believe the economy in its present condition will hold out much longer. Hence I have dedicated quite a lot of work in researching contrarian investing techniques and have done well. I see the next 30 days as a critical period for my type of investment strategy and have "already" positioned myself sheerly out of investment profits to have a decent portfolio of the stocks I believe will do very well. I am not even going to release those researched picks until they start moving and the TA looks overwhelming. And it is likely I will hold far longer than others because I have done the DD to know their upside potential. In my research however I have come across several 4star picks out of a 5 star rating that are simply too good to pass up. Right now I don't have the $ to put into any of them except for perhaps one that I simply can't let slip away. I am not willing to give up the positions I have because I know their value and will wait it out for more gains. If you understand researchers and their mentality and the contrarian personality you would not conclude the same conclusions in your post. (Researchers often are delighted by people simply taking notice of their research before it shows itself important) Also take note that I did not spam all over SI but only posted 3 messages. That should tell you I am not on some sort of campaign. Also look at my post history and note I don't spam and am tightlipped about releasing what I know. You will also note I don't like spam. There.... I feel better now. Thanks ... you probably won't read this far. George