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Non-Tech : New Holland and the Ag Equipment Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (67)	3/16/1999 9:53:00 AM
From: John Stichnoth	Respond to of 113

<There are two components of inventory - inventory on the manufacturer's books and inventory in the dealer's yard....They're all in the 4-6 month range now, with Case and NH on the high end. > Counting the dealers' inventories, I would expect the total to be much higher. Don't the dealers have a good quarter's worth in their yards right now? I also thought this was one of DE's pushes, to make sure the dealers didn't get overly bloated. And this is where Ag might have a problem. Bloated inventories to marginal dealers leads to credit losses. Thin inventories to strong dealers the reverse. That's why the preference for De and CAT, for instance. Best, JS

To: James Clarke who wrote (67)	3/16/1999 10:59:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Respond to of 113

thanks jim, i hadn't realized this mike

To: James Clarke who wrote (67)	3/17/1999 8:31:00 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 113

Salomon Smith Barney raised its ratings on several equipment companies this morning. The firm lifted its rating on Caterpillar (CAT) to "Buy" from "Neutral," following CAT's recent price pullback. SSB upgraded its ratings on Deere & Co (DE) to "Buy" from "Neutral and AGCO (AG) to "Outperform" from "Neutral" on an improving farm equipment market. [???] Greenspan said yesterday that farmers have faired better than in prior Ag downturns...They've used technology including better equipment to become more efficient and government programs have cushioned some of the impact. News? No, but when Alan speaks, people listen. This with the SSB upgrades may cast a bit of favorable light. Thanks for the insight on dealer inventory...receiveables exceeding prior levels is often a good tipoff to channel stuffing...though I don't think there's any voluntary stuffing going on here [no sunbeam type stuff] just sudden drop in demand.